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Sunday, 09 December 12
COAL SWAPS HAVE LOST DIRECTION DUE TO LACK OF ASIAN INTEREST


COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 2.43 percent M-M but lost WoW by 0.54 percent and 0.62 percent D-D on Friday, 7 December 2012, according to the data released by AsiaClear OTC coal swaps on Friday.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swaps for average Q1’  2013 delivery was opened on 3 December 2012 at US$ 62.72 pmt but closed at US$ 62.38 on 7 December 2012 with the lost of US cents 34 per MT. Average Q4’  2013 delivery prices also followed Q1 trend for the same period.

Average Q4’  2013 deliveries for sub-bit Indonesia coal swap was opened at $ 66.57 pmt on 3 December  2012 and closed at $ 66.18 on 7 December 2012.  Average Q4’ delivery prices lost US cents 36 PMT D-D and cents 39 PMT from week ago but gained US cents 28 from month ago.

CFR South China coal shipment for average Q1’  2013 delivery price also lost D-D and W-W. Average Q4’ 2013 delivery price also lost D-D and M-M but gained W-o-W. The contract for the average Q1’ 2013 prices lost US$ 0.28 D-O-D and closed at US$ 84.25 a ton on 7 December 2012. Average Q4 CFR South China coal shipment prices lost US cents 17 PMT DOD  and US$ 1.14 MOM.

In the meantime, sub-bit Indonesia coal swaps for Q1 delivery also lost on DOD and WOW but gained US$ 1.48 MOM.

CFR South China coal shipments (average Q1’ 2013 delivery) was opened at $ 84.28 on 3 December  and closed at $ 84.25 on 7 December 2012 down US cents 3 PMT. In the meantime, CFR South China coal Q1’  2013 delivery prices fell 0.33  percent D-o-D and gained 0.15 percent MOM. The CFR South China coal swaps for Q4’ 2013  delivery lost 0.19 percent D-o-D and gained 0.48  percent on W-W.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for Q1’  2013 delivery closed at US$ 62.38 on 7 December 2012 compared to US$  62.72 Monday opening, lost US$ 0.34 per MT. In the meantime, CFR South China coal Q1’ 2013  delivery swaps closed at US$ 84.25 down only US$ 0.03 pmt W-W.

CFR South China coal, average Q4 2013 deliveries did not performed well this week followed last week’s trend. This week prices fall on D-D and M-M and gained little W-W. CFR South China coal, average Q4 2013 swaps lost 0.19 percent D-D and 1.27 percent M-M.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for average Q4 2013 delivery lost D-D and W-W but gained M-M. Indonesia FOB swaps lost 0.54 percent D-D, 0.58 percent W-W but gained 0.42 percent M-M.

A commodity swap is a financial agreement whereby a floating, or spot, price is exchanged for a fixed rate over a specified contract period.

AsiaClear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap for average Q4’ 2013 delivery closed US$ 3.80 higher compared to average Q1’  2013  delivery price of US$ 62.38 on 7 December  2012. CFR South China coal swap for average Q4’  2013  delivery closed US$ 4.13 higher compared to average Q1’  2013  delivery price.

2013 coal swaps are not stable this week. It is very difficult to understand the market direction in 2013 from this week price closing. Coal prices are not stable and expected more volatile movements in coming weeks.  the firm prices directions can be seen next year mid February.

Indonesian government has sets its December HBA at US$ 81.75 for 6322 GAR coal. This month HBA is 0.38 percent higher  than November price but 27.44 percent lower than a year ago.

According to available data, Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped  35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012 which is around 19.85* percent higher compared to September exports. Most of the Indonesian coal goes to China and India in October 2013. Indonesian low GCV coal is still an attractive fuel for Indian consumers due to its cheap price as well as lower freight. Indian coal imports from Indonesia has increased significantly in 2012 and expected it will reach more than 75 million tons in 2012. According to available information, Indonesia also shipped 300.488* million tons of coal (all grades included) in first 10 months. As usual 53.18* percent of total exported coal goes to china and India.

The physical prices of medium GVCV coal shows a little improvement last week.  The current price movement is definitely not favoring coal producer on long term planning. However Indonesian most of the coal producers are decided go ahead with their original plan to increase coal output in spite the current low prices. Producers are expecting the prices will take “U” turn in near future.

COALspot.com still feels that, the year 2013, will be buyer’s year, at least until second half of 2013.



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