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Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, if one invests today and the price falls even further tomorrow, he will have lost a great deal of money and that's something that no ship owner (or anyone for that matter) wishes. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal attempted to solve the riddle, by taking into account the latest price trends, in terms of ship values.

According to Intermodal's, George Bassakos, "as per the latest data from the Baltic Exchange quote a 5yr old Capesize below USD 30m (USD 29.89m) – the lowest value since the index started in Sep-03. Same applies for Panamaxes/Supramaxes at USD 18.5m and USD 18.2m, whilst a further slide in asset values is expected. The majority of Shipowners, especially Greeks, sit on the sideline, foreseeing further drops in asset values within 2013, waiting for the right time to hit. There are others, fewer but mostly Greeks again, who consider the current asset-play attractive enough, heavily bidding on 10yr old hmaxes/supramaxes, pushing prices north, better say ... northeast" he said.

Intermoda's analyst went on to mention that "on the currency front, the Yen is finally dropping against the dollar, enabling Japanese Owners to see more reason when facing the current market and selling their ships, rather than marketing them simply to withdraw them later on once they see that Buyers are not there to face their aiming levels.

On the economic front, putting the freshly minted Hellenic-rescue plan aside, the OECD has just slashed its 2013 economic growth forecast; in its latest economic outlook, it expects growth of 1.4pct next year – down from 2.2pct in its previous forecast 6 months ago, with evident signs of a renewed slowdown or even a double-dip recession in some parts of the world" he noted.

Back to Shipping side of things, Bassakos said that "market estimates and forecasts for dry freight rates in 2013/14 are looking ever more disheartening. With Capesizes already showing a 19% drop in average earnings for 2012, Panamaxes 30%, Supramaxes 25% and Handysizes are down by 26%, basing any projections on these figures and without any “out of the blue” event that could potentially change the market fundamentals, 2013 is looking like it will turn out to be another difficult year for the dry bulk sector. According to forecasts, many expect dry bulk shipping demand to grow by less than 6pct in 2013, which is considerably lower than what was anticipated in the start of 2012. Global fleet supplyon the other hand and mentioned in our previous reports, is projected to fall from this year’s figure, which is estimated to be close to 11pct, down to less than 7pct next year, although this will heavily depend on the level of scrapping that will take place.

So, there you have it. The perfect global storm scenario for 2013, of Mr. Roubini - remind you of our commentary back in July, is moving full ahead, towards maturity. Mixing up the main ingredients - Eurozone crisis, double-dip recession in the US, hard landing in China, falling of BRICS' performance and conflict in the Middle East - may create further distress in the markets, unless there is any unforeseen sweet surprise set for shipowners" Bassakos concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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