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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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