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Sunday, 11 November 12
AN OPTIMISTIC WEEK FOR INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL


COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 2.08 percent WoW  and 1.28 percent DoD on Friday, 9 November 2012, according to the data released by AsiaClear OTC coal swaps on Friday.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swaps for January 2013 delivery was opened on 5 November 2012 at US$ 60.37pmt but closed at US$ 61.63 on 9 November 2012 gains around $ 1.26 pmt. December 2013 delivery as well as average calendar 2013 delivery prices also gained 2.33 percent and 2.22  percent respectively per MT for the same period.

Average December 2013 deliveries for Sub-Bit Indonesia coal was opened at $ 65.52 pmt on 5 November 2012 and closed at $ 67.05 on 9 November 2012.

Average prices for CFR South China coal shipment for January’13, December’13 and calendar 2013 deliveries also gained WoW as well as DoD.  Last week price movements for 2013 deliveries were showing a positive direction and if it is continues, then the market will correct itself favoring coal producers. However the same direction was failed to transformed to physical market during the same period.

CFR South China coal shipments (delivery January 2013) was opened at $ 84.00 on 5th November  and closed at $84.00 on 9 November 2012 without any change WoW. However, CFR South China coal prices gains 0.23 percent DoD. The CFR South China coal swaps for December’13 delivey also gains 0.24  percent W-W and 0.11 percent D-D for the same period.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for January 2013 delivery closed at US$ 61.63 on 9 November 2012 compared to US$ 60.37 Monday opening, gained US$ 1.26 per MT. In the meantime, CFR South China coal January ‘ 13 delivery closed at US$ 84.00 with no change on W-W but gained  US$ 0.20 pmt D-D.

CFR South China coal, average Calendar 13 delivery also moved positive direction this week gains 0.03  percent W-W and 0.13 percent d-d. Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for average cal 13 delivery gained  2.22 percent or US$ 1.40 pmt W-W, and 1.35 percent D-D closed at US$ 64.33.

A commodity swap is a financial agreement whereby a floating, or spot, price is exchanged for a fixed rate over a specified contract period.

However, AsiaClear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap for December’13 delivery closed US$ 5.42 higher compared to January’13 delivery price of US$ 61.63. CFR South China coal swap for December’13 delivery closed US$  5.45 higher per mt compared to January’ 13 delivery price. Swaps are showing a positive market condition during 2nd half of  year 2013.

Indonesian government has sets its November HBA at US$ 81.44 for 6322 GAR coal. November HBA is 5.35 per lower than October price or 30.18 percent lower than a year ago.

The Indonesian government has also reduced its DMO requirement by 18 percent due to lower consumption by power plants in Indonesia. Indonesian miners were required to allocate 67.3 million metric tons of coal under DMO requirement, down from the previous requirement of 82.1 million tons or less 14.8 million tons of coal set in August of last year. However, the market is calm and there is no excess cargo due to reduction of DMO. According to a one of the largest coal producer, the reduction on DMO requirement has not affected them, as they have already signed the contract as per previous requirement.

Recently Indonesian government has issued a DMO regulation for 2013 supply figures. According to DMO requirement, miners were asked to allocate 74.30 million metric tons of coal under the so-called domestic market obligation (DMO) in 2013, which is little higher than 2012 revised DMO requirement.

Year 2013,  DMO volume is almost equivalent to 20.30 percent of the targeted production volume of coal in 2013. The Indonesian government is forecasting the 2013 coal production will be around 337 million tons to 366.04 million tons.

Due to higher coal output and less demand, the price recovery will be in slow speed. According to coal a coal producer, Chinese demand is still slow. Hence the price recovery will take time. Now producers are pushing their existing buyer’s to perform their existing contracts which were concluded at a high price than the current price. “ We don’t have a coal to offer against any new inquiries for November or December delivery or at least until January 2013” , said a coal producer from Kalimantan.

“ Indonesian coal producers want to delay their annul coal supply contract negotiation to early next year to get better price than existing”, a market player said.



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