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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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