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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Monday, 10 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT SURELY REACHING CRITICAL STATUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The radical consequences of the shifts in dry bulk demand and prices, especially for the most sought after commodity, concerning the industry, i.e. ...
Monday, 10 September 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES INDONESIAN COAL TRADING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced today that the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources h ...
Monday, 10 September 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% focusing on pushing down borrowing costs in troubled economies, Spain and Italy. ...
Sunday, 09 September 12
H213 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE TRADING HIGHER
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for October 2012 delivery lost 0.14 percent W-O-W on 7 September 2012, Friday closing but gained ...
Saturday, 08 September 12
INDO INDIA ROUTE FREIGHT FOR SUPRAMAX REMAINS STRONG - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained weak and except for cape index all other sectors were down. The biggest drop was in the Panamax s ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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