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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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