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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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