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Friday, 03 August 12
INDIA - LIGHTS OUT! - SALVA
The Indian power sector hit global headlines this week for all the wrong reasons. Firstly, on Monday, over 350 million people lost power across northern India, including Delhi. The following day, the lights went out again, but this time over 600 million people in 20 of India’s 28 states were affected, with the outages covering range of 3000 kilometers in the northern and eastern regions. The authorities’ response has ranged from blaming states for overdrawing from the grid, to appointing a committee to inquire into the causes of the blackout. However, these latest outages are merely symptomatic of much larger problems in India’s power sector, which has been short of power for years.
In Salva’s view, the problem does not lie within the generation sector – but with its upstream (coal supply and transportation) and downstream (transmission and distribution) counterparts. Since the generation sector was deregulated in FY03-04 to enable private participation, installed generation capacity has almost doubled, growing by 92GW or 85%, at a CAGR of 10.8%. The vast majority of this new capacity is coal-fired, which added another 18GW of new capacity in FY11-12 and a further 4.2GW in Q1’12.
However, this new power generation capacity is not being fully utilised, with plant load factors for coal declining from 79.2% in H1’11 to 75.8% in H1’12 and 72% most recently in June. Over 4.3TWh of coal-fired generation was lost in June alone due to low coal supply with a further 1.4TWh lost because of transmission constraints and unplanned outages. Given these figures, clearly thermal coal supply remains a problem. While domestic coal production has increased in 2012, it has languished in recent years, growing at around 1% (5Mt) between 2008-11, which pales in comparison against annual coal-fired power capacity growth of over 10%. Even when production is strong, which it has been in early 2012 (by Indian standards), transportation of coal remains highly problematic. Indian Railways has not been able to procure wagons in time to boost availability sufficiently. This has resulted in coal shortages at power plants and growth in coal mine stockpiles. Transport capacity remains severely constrained as capacity addition has languished at the altar of populism. Passenger traffic shares the same infrastructure as freight, causing freight such as coal to be given a lower priority.
The Electricity Act of 2003 freed up the generation sector, but the same reforms haven’t yet percolated to the transmission and distribution sectors, which are suffering from the same bottlenecks that existed prior to 2003. Transmission capacity is not being developed at the same pace as generation capacity, while distribution reforms remain a pipe dream. As domestic coal production has not kept pace with demand, power producers have used much costlier imported coal to generate electricity. However, India’s tariff framework is still lagging behind, so the State Electricity Boards require ever increasing financial support from state owned banks and financial institutions. Tariff reform is an immediate requirement. Only that will facilitate the sector’s much needed investment.
What are the implications if this is not done now?
Indian cities are accustomed to power cuts. However, increasing prosperity has increased electricity demand and, coupled with the weak monsoon this year, has caused power demand to spike. Agricultural states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab have increasingly overdrawn power from the grids to feed the agricultural sector (which ironically is not metered as power is free for farmers) and to meet residential demand. The agricultural sector is still dependent upon the monsoon as the irrigation network is not widespread, and the weak monsoon has resulted in farmers pumping groundwater onto their fields. Generally electricity demand is low during the monsoon months (June-September) as the rains reduce temperatures. However, the rains have been weak and hence residential power demand has remained strong. This has been further exacerbated with the additional demand from the agricultural sector. State power distribution companies have not planned in advance to buy additional electricity and have overdrawn power from the grid without additional generation being supplied. This has destabilised the grid and caused it to fail.
The impact of the electricity shortages have been felt by the public at large, with a few incidents of people protesting on the road. However, it hasn’t erupted into widespread unrest - thankfully.
The implications of not carrying out reforms in the transmission and distribution sector are now apparent. Lack of adequate investment in the transmission sector will hobble the impressive generation capacity that has been developed. Lack of commercial reforms in the power distribution sector will not provide the returns or even cover the basic cost of generation. The power sector is already sick and if reforms are not carried out with the seriousness required, India will suffer further setbacks.
Source: Salva
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Sunday, 09 December 12
LOW DEMAND PUSHES CHARTER RATES TOWARDS DOWN - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market has softened and BDI, The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods, plunged below 10 ...
Friday, 07 December 12
A NEW PHASE FOR AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES - A FITCH STREET INTERVIEW
This week Matt Jamieson spoke with Andrew Colquhoun in Fitch's Asian sovereign rating team, and Vicky Melbourne, Fitch's commodity analyst based i ...
Friday, 07 December 12
SHIPPING INDUSTRY LOOKING ON YET ANOTHER TOUGH YEAR AS WE APPROACH 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most import ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
PANAMAX : THE POSITIVE VIBES IN THE ATLANTIC REMAINS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market is still depressed with dearth of cargoes and more ships. The trips from Continent to Feast fixed around USD 12k. Trips f ...
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commod ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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