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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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