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Wednesday, 02 May 12
CHINA BLACKOUTS HIGHLIGHT PRICING POLICY WEAKNESS - FITCH
Fitch reported that, the likelihood of further electricity blackouts in China this summer underlines Fitch's view of the basic problem facing thermal electricity generators - that the tariff framework is not sustainable in the long term.
The problem centres on China's thermal or coal-fired plants, which in 2011 represented 72.5% of total electricity production of 4,692.8TWh, and are likely to remain the backbone of electricity generation for the foreseeable future. The problem is not with China's national electricity grid, which is well developed, but rather with the non-viability of the pricing mechanism for the coal-fired generators.
The Chinese thermal generators are unwilling to produce excess electricity in peak periods when their marginal generation costs are above the tariffs the government will allow them to charge the grid companies. Tariff adjustments have not been timely or sufficient despite the rising cost of coal, as the government has prioritised the management of inflation - thereby constraining profitability. The weak economics have also discouraged private-sector investment, while the state-linked thermal generators - Huaneng International ('BB+'/Stable), Datang International ('BB'/Stable), China Power International Development ('BB'/Stable), and Huadian International ('BB-'/Stable) - are now struggling with substantially weakened balance sheets.
Coal input prices for the thermal generators have increased dramatically over the past three years to end-2011, rising by an average of 16% pa. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has only allowed nationwide electricity tariffs to rise once in the last two years, by around 5% for non-residential customers in December 2011. Some tariff increases also occurred in selective provinces in April 2011, but the impact on generators' profitability was limited.
A 5% cap on annual coal price increases was introduced along with the December 2011 electricity tariff revision, but this applied only to contracted coal prices. These capped prices only represent around 30%-40% of the total needs of most thermal generators. Accordingly, large amounts of coal have to be bought on the spot market at substantially higher prices, making excess electricity production an uneconomic proposition. The substantial premium - typically 30% - on spot market prices against the capped contract coal price results in coal producers seeking ways to reduce their contracted sales in favour of spot sales, which is steadily eroding any benefit from the coal price caps.
A longer-term problem, and a potential cause of an eventual structural shortfall in generation capacity, is that limited profit - or losses - from thermal operations have since 2008 led to new capex in the industry being diverted away from thermal and into wind, hydro and vertical integration via coal mine acquisitions. A National Energy Administration (NEA) report dated 30 January 30 2012 confirmed that China's investment in thermal power assets fell again in 2011, by 26%, to CNY105.4bn. This trend, which cannot be reversed quickly due to the typical minimum two-year lead time to build new thermal capacity, is a serious concern given China's continued dependence on coal for its power generation.
The Chinese thermal generators are likely to face sustained weak operating cash flows and negative free cash generation under this heavily regulated environment, a situation which Fitch believes to be unsustainable in light of the continued growth in the Chinese economy. The agency believes that China is looking to introduce price reforms across the energy industries, but achieving a truly cost-reflective tariff regime is likely to take several more years, and will require a favourable inflationary climate. In the meantime, demand will continue to outstrip supply, even if - theoretically - the capacity exists within the generation system.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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