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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 March 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA CAN FETCH CLOSE TO USD 9K DOP N.CHINA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic Handysize market did not see any signs for recovery this week. It is still a major lack of spot cargoes and an oversupply of pro ...
Wednesday, 29 February 12
69 MINERS AGREE TO RENEGOTIATE CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news papaer in Indonesia reported that, as many as 60 coal contracts-of-work (PKP2B) and nine non-coal ...
Wednesday, 29 February 12
PUTTING COAL GASIFICATION TO WORK
Clifford Reese of the SSOE Group looks at practical solutions for district energy leaders who wish to implement clean coal technology.
Coal fuels ...
Monday, 27 February 12
COAL MINING PROFITS TOO HIGH, SAYS GOVT - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
Tempo Interactive reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Deputy Minister of Indonesia Widjajono Partowidagdo has criticized coal-mining compani ...
Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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