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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and s ...
Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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