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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 May 12
COAL EXPORTS ARE JUMPING HIGHER, BUT PRICES ARE FALLING LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31.86* million tons of coal in April 2012, compared to 30.64* million tons i ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fourth straight week and the BDI fell by 9.38 pct this week closing at 1,034 points.
The Cape Si ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS HEADING TO SOUTH DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries have dropped this week by 5.43 percent an ...
Saturday, 26 May 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CUT BACK ON TONNAGE SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of dry bulk carriers has been the most prominent problem in the market today, pushing down rates and ‘strangling’ profita ...
Thursday, 24 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS ON LACK OF CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday on the back of lower Chinese demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore, typically hauled by dry bulk ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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