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Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend has remained the same, the return of Chinese charterers from their three-day holidays marked a stronger demand for Capesizes yesterday, which in turn was enough to offset the lack of interest for smaller vessels and lead the market to higher ground. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 0..22% to 928 points yesterday, with Capesizes gaining 2.17% on the day and reaching 1,507 points. By contrast, the demise of the Supramax market was again evident, with the relative index losing 1.66%, while Panamaxes were also down by 0.67%.
Detailing the oversupply issues which have caused the dry bulk market to retreat to such low levels since the start of the year, Intermodal’s Theodore Ntalakos said that “the freight market and other circumstances were quite convenient for many shipowners who while acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, ordered new buildings even when it was clear that in the long-term the excessive tonnage would eventually suffocate the freight market. It is a real-life example of game theory that shows why two or more individuals might not cooperate, even if it is in their best interest to do so” said Mr. Ntalakos.
He went on to give an example to make his case. “Say we have one shipowner ( Shipowner A) and all the rest shipowners (Shipowner B). Each of their strategy is either to expand by ordering the new fuel efficient vessels or not to order and buy a vessel from the second hand market. We have four possible scenarios:
I. If Shipowner A orders and no one else does then he will get the benefit of new designs, and earn say $10, B stays behind and earns $1
II. If both A and B order then they lose the advantage and they earn very little - $2,
III. If no one orders then they earn moderately from their existing fleet - $5 each, and
IV. If shipowner A does not order but 'B' orders then 'A' will earn very little because the charterers will prefer B's ECO ships – A earns $1, B earns $10.
Here, regardless of what the other decides, each shipowner gets a higher pay-off by ordering new vessels:
I. If B does not order, the payoffs for A are $5 or $10 so he will always chose $10 i.e to order.
II. If B orders, the payoffs for A are $1 or $2 so he will always chose $2 i.e to order
The game is symmetric so Shipower B would always act the same way which means that both shipowers would order new vessels. Since both rational owners decide to order new vessels each receives a lower reward than if both were not to order!! So, rational decision-making results being worse off than if each chose not to order and accept to earn less. As the two shipowners can’t see what the others are doing and cannot play a cooperative game, they will decide to maximize their pay-off and always proceed with orders” said Mr. Ntalakos in a rather interesting undertaking.
He concluded his analysis by stating “we need however to point out that the new ECO ships especially with the current restrain on finance, will only be a small part of the total fleet and orderbook and it will take years to play a substantial part and drive the older vessels out of the market, so we expect owners who order such vessels with today's new builiding and bunker prices to have the competitive advantage for the years to come.
So, there you have it, Shipping is a non-cooperative game. Then why do pools exist? Even in pools if each member's interest to put the next (and succeeding) vessel he acquires into the pool and the demand is limited then the quality of the common is damaged for everybody. So like everything else in life one needs to find the proper equilibrium between cooperating and looking after one's self-interest” he said.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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