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Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend has remained the same, the return of Chinese charterers from their three-day holidays marked a stronger demand for Capesizes yesterday, which in turn was enough to offset the lack of interest for smaller vessels and lead the market to higher ground. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 0..22% to 928 points yesterday, with Capesizes gaining 2.17% on the day and reaching 1,507 points. By contrast, the demise of the Supramax market was again evident, with the relative index losing 1.66%, while Panamaxes were also down by 0.67%.
Detailing the oversupply issues which have caused the dry bulk market to retreat to such low levels since the start of the year, Intermodal’s Theodore Ntalakos said that “the freight market and other circumstances were quite convenient for many shipowners who while acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, ordered new buildings even when it was clear that in the long-term the excessive tonnage would eventually suffocate the freight market. It is a real-life example of game theory that shows why two or more individuals might not cooperate, even if it is in their best interest to do so” said Mr. Ntalakos.
He went on to give an example to make his case. “Say we have one shipowner ( Shipowner A) and all the rest shipowners (Shipowner B). Each of their strategy is either to expand by ordering the new fuel efficient vessels or not to order and buy a vessel from the second hand market. We have four possible scenarios:
I. If Shipowner A orders and no one else does then he will get the benefit of new designs, and earn say $10, B stays behind and earns $1
II. If both A and B order then they lose the advantage and they earn very little - $2,
III. If no one orders then they earn moderately from their existing fleet - $5 each, and
IV. If shipowner A does not order but 'B' orders then 'A' will earn very little because the charterers will prefer B's ECO ships – A earns $1, B earns $10.
Here, regardless of what the other decides, each shipowner gets a higher pay-off by ordering new vessels:
I. If B does not order, the payoffs for A are $5 or $10 so he will always chose $10 i.e to order.
II. If B orders, the payoffs for A are $1 or $2 so he will always chose $2 i.e to order
The game is symmetric so Shipower B would always act the same way which means that both shipowers would order new vessels. Since both rational owners decide to order new vessels each receives a lower reward than if both were not to order!! So, rational decision-making results being worse off than if each chose not to order and accept to earn less. As the two shipowners can’t see what the others are doing and cannot play a cooperative game, they will decide to maximize their pay-off and always proceed with orders” said Mr. Ntalakos in a rather interesting undertaking.
He concluded his analysis by stating “we need however to point out that the new ECO ships especially with the current restrain on finance, will only be a small part of the total fleet and orderbook and it will take years to play a substantial part and drive the older vessels out of the market, so we expect owners who order such vessels with today's new builiding and bunker prices to have the competitive advantage for the years to come.
So, there you have it, Shipping is a non-cooperative game. Then why do pools exist? Even in pools if each member's interest to put the next (and succeeding) vessel he acquires into the pool and the demand is limited then the quality of the common is damaged for everybody. So like everything else in life one needs to find the proper equilibrium between cooperating and looking after one's self-interest” he said.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 11 August 12
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS LOST 27.78 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell again in August.
The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month fell 3.32 percent. HBA fell ...
Saturday, 11 August 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS SEEN MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery gain 1.29 percent W-o-W on Friday (10 August 2012) closing but lost 1 ...
Friday, 10 August 12
DRY BULK MARKET DROWNING FROM TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been overflowing with new building vessels, despite the fact that demand is more or less (and minus the seasonal factors) ri ...
Thursday, 09 August 12
3RD ANNUAL SHALE GAS
Press Release - With the North American shale gas boom, IBC’s 3rd Annual Shale Gas explores optimal strategies to monetize Asia’s domest ...
Wednesday, 08 August 12
EXPLOITASI AIMS TO RAISE RP 2.7T FOR ACQUISITION - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, publicly listed coal miner PT Exploitasi Energi Indonesia (CNKO) is seeking to raise Rp 2.7 trillion (US$286.2 milli ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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