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Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING


Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expert, Sheikh Fahad Al-Daoud Al-Sabah. Sheikh Fahad, a specialist in oil refining strategies, said in an interview with Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) geopolitical events became the major factor influencing oil prices, at present, indicating at dwindling impact of other factors, such supply and demand and market speculations.

He said the prices would not drop lower than $100 pb and might soar to $150 pb, in the coming two months, but may jump as high as $250pb in case Iran was targeted with a military strike, although such an eventuality was unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Price of the oil will remain unstable unless the Iranian issue is resolved and Tehran allows international inspectors examine its nuclear facilities and review its nuclear program, said Sheikh Fahad Al-Daoud, noting that the main current factor affecting the prices of the crude was imposition of curbs on the Iranian crude oil trade.

On OPEC’S role for stemming hikes of the oil prices, Al-Daoud said “certain problems” have hampered the cartel efforts in this respect, namely the fact that Iran is a a major and influential member of the organization and has supporters among the members. Elaborating in this regard, Sheikh Fahad indicated at difficult status of the GCC states, where in case they increased the oil production, Iran would consider such a step as hostile and if not, they would be showered with accusations about purported intentions to hard the world economy.

The Kuwaiti expert affirmed that OPEC was in a very difficult condition as to the available options and scenarios; facing pressure from Iran as a result of the curbs and counter pressures from Western powers. Nevertheless, the organization should seek to stem the prices, he stressed. He questioned whether OPEC could seek to pump more supplies into the market, in the shadow of the existing glut, and indicated at disarrays among the members as to the best options that should be chosen to cope with the crisis.

Despite existence of the surplus on the market, the price is likely to increase, he affirmed. “The world is moving on a certain pace, the equation is hard, and the storm cannot be resisted to stabilize the prices,” he opined further. On bleak scenario that would result from possible closure of the strategic Hormuz strait, he indicated that the UAE has already started building a pipeline to secure exports of the crude from a route other than the waterway.

He called on the other regional oil producers to follow Abu Dhabi’s suit, “for it is senseless that the Arab Gulf oil remains subject to status of Hormuz Strait.” On comeback of the Libyan oil experts and reports about new explorations in some countries, Sheikh Fahad Al-Daoud said such factors would lead to limited impact on the market and would, to a certain extent, contribute in stemming the prices.

Currently, there are huge supplies, in the face of high demand, and that is likely to hike further, he forecast, stressing that the price would certainly not drop below the level of $100 pb-even if the curbs on the Iranian oil are lifted.
Source: KUNA / Hellenic Shipping



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