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Thursday, 22 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS SURGING, CAPESIZES FALLING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


In what seems to be an establishing pattern, the dry bulk market has kept its upward momentum, edging closer to the 900 point-mark, but the larger ship type, the Capesize, typically used to ship iron ore and coal to China and other market, is still facing the heat of oversupply. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was 1.36% higher to 896 points, again with the support of smaller ship types, namely the Supramax and the Pamanax ones. By contrast the Capesize market was once again down by 0.85% on the day. The Supramax market inched higher by 1.82%, while Handies were also up by 1.53% to 530 points.

The latest report from shipbroker Fearnleys mentioned on the Capesize segment that “the Pacific has remained largely inactive with the exception on one Miner covering a couple of positions and managing to bring the market down in the process. The Atlantic has been equally as inactive, but there have been a few front haul fixtures at varying levels. It seems that the bottom here has been reached. Also the short period market, which had been paying a premium over the spot market, has all but disappeared” said Fearnleys.

In a separate report, shipbroker Shiptrade Services said that “in the Atlantic Basin over supply of tonnage keeps the market at low levels. The demand for iron ore and coal in Europe remains limited and this is the main reason for the negative sentiment in this region. The T/A rounds closed at levels close to 4.000 daily and the Fronhaul requirements from NCSA and ECUS and ECCA are not enough to drive the market upwards This down fall on rates was reflected on the average of TC routes which went down by USD 394 closing the week at USD 5,392. Pacific market remained stable at low levels with the round falling by USD 500, being fixed at USD 6,000. The cyclone which hit West-Australia refrained the iron ore majors from producing fresh cargoes resulting in oversupply of tonnage in the area. This preserved the negative sentiment as owners have to compete for lower rates when the production returns back to normal. Period activity was active but on lower rates around USD 10,000 levels” stated Shiptrade.

Moving on to one of the “stars” of the dry bulk market these days, the Panamax segment, Fearnleys noted that “the Panamax market has experienced some slightly positive signals the last week. We´ve seen rates coming up a bit in the Atlantic with the ECSA grain business being the main driver. We also see some more coal cargos from USEC and Baltic but the rates here are keeping somewhat flat. In the Pacific we have seen the market come off a bit with heavy rains in Aussie affecting mining and rail carriage of coal to the ports. The latter has caused vessels to start ballasting for the ECSA grain cargos in order to secure employment at decent levels. Fhauls are being fixed at around 16k + 600k GBB for ECSA and Tarvs fetching around 6k while the Pac rounds are being fixed in region of USD 7/8k. The period market is still somehow active with 1-year deals being concluded in region of USD 10,500” the shipbroker said.

On the Handy/Supramax segments, Fearnleys commented that another positive trend was seen last week with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw-Passero/US Gulf climbed slowly up to USD 3700, while US Gulf/Skaw Passero fixed tick above USD 15k. Fronthauls fixed USD 13600. The Pacific market has remained steady. For Indo-India, large eco Supra can fetch close to USD 19k bss Singapore. Premium cargoes like nickel ore are also seen fixed at USD 13k dely North China. Nopac also fixed around USD 11k dop Japan. Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. WCI-China rates around USD 11k and ECI-China around USD 8k. RBCT rv fixed at APS USD 12k + BB USD 350k. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens. Not much activity seen on short period and rates are around USD 12k for large Supra” concluded the shipbroker in its report.

Similarly, Shiptrade said that “in the Atlantic it was a positive week with the transatlantic increasing at USD 8,000 mainly due to more cargoes coming out in the market especially from ECSA where, after a long time, some sugar parcels came to remind owners that grain season is about to begin. This was reinforced by some movement in orders from West Africa to Continent or Far East which relieved ECSA from ballasters. USG and Continent remained at flat rates with low volume on cargoes while rates ex Black Sea have been raised up a bit. The front haul trips remained at similar levels than last week averaging at around USD 13,750. On the other side, Pacific round was fixed at much better levels of USD 7,500 mainly due to increased coal exports from Indonesia and the whole South East Asia region. Back haul trips were mainly done ex Thailand to West Africa with bagged rice but yielded low returns for the owners thus many refrained from coming back to Atlantic than suffering losses. Vessels opened at East Coast India preferred to ballast towards Singapore for a trip to China of PG. Period activity was extremely slow as owners found no reason to fixing at such rates” it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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