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Saturday, 13 June 09
CLEARLY THE DRIVER FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS TO BE IMPORTS BY CHINA - VISTAAR SINGAPORE

COALspot.com (Singapore): The market saw mixed results last week. The beginning of the week saw the indices dropping including the futures , however towards end of the week, the index started to move up including the futures.

Overall the BDI lost 226 points and Cape / Panamax / Supramax / Handysize lost 97 / 498 / 110 / 53 points respectively. The BDI has gone up by more than 500 pct since the lows on Dec 2008 and interestingly the BDI is almost close to the last five year average which is a healthy level.The average charters rates per day at the closing of the week at Cape / US$ 74,889; Panamax / US$ 22,140 ; Supramax / US$ 18,006 and Handysize / US$ 11,939.

The iron ore and coal accounts to almost 50 pct of the global sea borne trade and the dry bulk freight will depend heavily on the volume imported by China . According to Ministry of Transportation of China the iron ore imports this year from Jan-May has totaled 258 million tonnes, which is 4 million tonnes more than the first half of last year. Unloading of coal in China (including domestic and foreign trade) will probably reach 49.2 million tons, an increase of 10.8 percent over the same period last year.

"Clearly the driver for dry bulk market seems to be the iron ore and coal imports by China" - Capt. Reddy, MD, Vistaar Shipping

Some of the factors which are likely to affect the global economy are out come of Iranian elections, Fresh UN Sanctions on North Korea and WHO declaring H1N1 Flu as starting of a Global pandemic.

The South American and US Gulf market continued remained firm. The PG/WC India region was extremely firm due to shortage of tonnages in June, where supramax were fixed at around US$ 20000 per day for trips S.Africa to India  and India to far East. The Far East/Se asia market continued to be soft and saw many vessels spot especially the older tonnages.

The short period rates with delivery Far East was around Supramax - US$ 15,000/16,000 ; Panamax / US$ 20,000 and Cape / US$ 52,000. There was relatively  few long period fixtures were reported last week. Next week is expected to maintain same levels with no major changes in the freight levels.

The bunker prices continued to remain firm with brent crude touching US$ 72 per barrel and the IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore touching around US$ 405 pmt levels.

The crude prices is expected to remain soft / firm over next couple of weeks and hence the bunker prices also would be high. The outcome of Iranian elections is expected to have a major impact on the crude oil prices.


The indicative spot freight rates on Supramax as follows:

Coal

- Indonesia / East Coast India                 : US$ 13.00 / 13.50 pmt
- Indonesia / West Coast India                : US$ 17.00 / 17.50 pmt
- Richards Bay / West Coast India          : US$ 20.00 / 20.50 pmt
- Richards Bay / East Coast India           : US$ 21.50 / 22.00 pmt
- Queensland / East Coast India             : US$ 19.50 / 20.00 pmt

Iron Ore

- West Coast India / N.China                    : US$ 17.50 / 18.00 pmt
- East Coast India / N.China                     : US$  15.50 / 16.00 pmt



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