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Thursday, 05 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES A PLUNGE OF LOW ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


As was widely expected the first days of the new year are characterized by significantly low chartering across the board of the dry bulk market, pushing the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltid Dry Index) to new lows. As a result, the BDI took a nosedive yesterday to end the session to 1,552 points, losing a total of 4.43% on the day. The biggest contributor to this loss was the Capesize sector, which was down by an impressive 6.33%, while all other sub-segments were also on the red. The Supramax market was down by 1.55%, while the Panamax down by 1.24%.

Commenting on the Capesize market, the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnleys said that “for obvious reasons the market in general has been quiet through the holiday season. Few fixtures were concluded last week, and those few were done at lower levels. The early new year sentiment, together with a number of vessels already in ballast has pressed the market down further. The most recent fixtures from West Australia are down from the USD 11+ level to the upper USD 10´s, with a negative trend. On the front haul, the uncovered demand remaining for January is still unclear, as China is only just back at work, but there are not many vessels that can make January cancelling in Brazil. This could keep a bit of pressure on this leg.

The transatlantic market has not woken up yet. Period has been limited to some renewals in direct continuation for 12-month charter, and at flat USD 17-18k level, but this is not believed to be sustainable” said Fearnleys.

Similarly on the Panamax front, it mentioned that “the Panamax market experienced a slow start to 2012 with holidays still in some countries. Lack of trading in both hemispheres and a growing list of spot tonnage made the rates slip even further. Mid week we see some more cargoes in the Atlantic which should lead to more activity, but most likely not enough to stop the downward trend this week. Most of the major charterers cleared out their program prior Christmas, and we do not expect any major upturn in the market until 2nd half of January. Tarvs now being fixed around USD 14k while the front hauls are paid around USD 23/24k level. In the Pacific the rounds are being concluded at low teens. The period market experienced some more activity at the start of 2012, as more takers are there at the present levels. Some owners are willing to give options to the periods which in turn attract even more interest” said Fearnleys.

Meanwhile, in a separate report at the start of the week, ICICI Securities provided its own insight on the trends which will dominate the shipping this year. According to it, “the shipping industry is currently passing through a downturn, which is likely to be prolonged. A moderation in demand and substantial increase in supply on account of new vessel additions is expected to keep freight rates subdued. Global dry bulk fleet capacity is 540 million dwt and an additional 256 million dwt i.e. 47 % of the existing fleet is likely to be added over the next two years. Global tanker capacity is 470 million dwt and an additional 122 million dwt i.e. 26% of the existing fleet is likely to be added over same period. Hence, there will be a substantial overhang from large fleet additions over the next couple of years. China has been the main driver of commodity demand. Though Chinese demand for coal has sustained, with China’s iron ore inventory at an all time high level of 96.9 million ton (MT), iron ore demand could see moderation over the next three or four quarters. Any slowdown in the Chinese commodity off take could lead to subdued demand for dry bulk carriers and thereby keep a tab on the up move in freight rates. The US and Europe are the main drivers of crude and refined oil products demand. As the recovery in both countries is likely to be modest, the demand for crude/product carriers is also likely to be subdued. Freight rates are expected to be under constant pressure on account of demand moderation and supply overhang. Hence, the operating performance of shipping companies is expected to be subdued.

Companies with high debt and lower fleet utilisation could also report reduction in profitability. However, the offshore shipping segment offers the best play in the entire shipping space on account of firmness in crude oil prices. In CY11, average crude prices have been at UD 111/barrel, which should lead to higher expenditure on exploration & processing leading to higher requirement of oil drilling assets and offshore vessels. Utilisation levels for most categories of rigs have sustained above 80% for major part of CY11. Average utilisation during H2CY11 for drillship, semisub and jack up has been 81%, 87%, and 80%, respectively. Sustained high utilisation levels are expected to have a positive impact on vessel day rates” concluded ICICI Securities.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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