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Tuesday, 03 January 12
WHICH WAY WILL THE DRY BULK MARKET HEAD ON FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Dry bulk ship owners will be wondering which way will the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, will head during the first days of the new year, since it ended on a downward spiral back in late December, ahead of the Christmas Holidays. In any case, 2011 proved to be an interesting, yet quite challenging year for dry bulk owners, who will be turning their heads towards the new year with much anticipation, as to what effect will China manage to exert on demand of dry bulk goods.
According to a recent BIMCO analysis on the dry bulk market, “despite the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase” said the analysis.
It went on to mention that “in order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant.
To sum up, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval” concluded BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand.
Meanwhile, in separate report on the course of second hand sales and newbuilding orders during the final week of the year, Lion Shipbrokers said that “on the dry-bulk front, an even quieter week with very few sales to report; Vintage handysize bulker HUI SHENG (37K BLT 1984/BRAZIL TRADING AS GEARLESS) has changed hands within China for $4.8 mill while gearless ice class 1A box single-decker LONE BRES (4.7K BLT 2000/HOLLAND) went to Norwegian Buyers for $2.85 mill basis annual & intermediate surveys freshly passed. In the Tanker segment, in addition to last week's report, Greek controlled suezmax duo EQUATOR & NAVIGATOR (150K BLT 2006 UNIVERSAL/JAPAN) have been committed en bloc for $44 mill each basis delivery January 2012 to clients of Principal Maritime of U.S.A. Two ex-Dr Peters controlled aframax/LR2 tankers were sold at auction. DS PERFORMER & DS POWER (109K BLT 1999/2000 DALIAN/CHINA) were sold for $15 mill each in auctions in Aruba & Rotterdam respectively, hearing both were bought by the Mortgagee bank, while others suggest by clients of Clearwater. Stainless steel chemical tanker ORIENTAL WISTERIA (12.5K BLT 2001/JAPAN) is reported committed to Chinese Buyers for $10.7 million” said Lion.
On the demolition market, it mentioned that “the news that Bangladesh will most probably re-open around 12th to 14th of January have put smiles upon Shipowners' faces, hoping that competition will push demo-rates above $500 levels. Most notable sale this week is container vessel BUXMASTER (LDT 6.837T, 23K BLT 1986/GERMANY) committed for the bullish price of $508 to India without having any extra features like extra bunkers/propeller or tailshaft to justify this level. The subcontinent's sentiment is positive and prices are ranging at $450 for Bulkers, $475 for tankers & $475 for Container/Tweendeckers. In other major demo-markets, China has improved paying $430 per lt, while Turkey is stable paying $330-335 per lt” concluded Lion Shipbroker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 17 December 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO HAVE ALMOST BOTTOMED OUT AND MAY REMAIN STEADY AT THESE LEVELS CAPT REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index closed lower this week with BDI closing at 1,888 points (down by 1.76 pct) and Cape index at 3,572 points (dow ...
Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smal ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
BERAU SEES INDIA AS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR LOW-CALORIE COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Publicly listed coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), the fifth largest coal producer in Indonesia, sees ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
PANAMAX HARDLY AFFECTED BY THE RECENT FIRMER TENDENCY FOR THE BIG SISTERS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The rates are more or less the same as last week. Continent/US Gulf fixing at tick below USD 10k and Gulf/Continent levels at USD 25k. Trips ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply w ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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