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Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING


Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dry bulk market. However, over recent months the Indian rupee has considerably weakened against the US dollar, making it harder for Indian buyers to import coal, and casting some doubt on the countrys ability to boost the bulk market. Money, Money, Money

The rupee began to weaken significantly against the dollar in August, and reached an all-time low exchange rate of 51.3 rupees to the dollar on 18th November, down from 44.1 on 8th April. The effect on the price of imported coal has been large, as can be seen in the Graph of the Month. Whilst the price of delivered Indonesian coal in dollars has fallen by 7% since the beginning of May to stand at $125/tonne by mid-November, the price in rupees has increased by 7%. India has been the only major Asian coal importing country to have been affected in this way, as the Chinese (as can be seen on the graph) and Japanese currencies have both strengthened slightly against the dollar since the early summer.

Powering Up
India is currently projected to import 129.6 mt of coal over 2011, with imports expected to grow strongly over the next few years. Demand for imported coal has been increasing due to higher steel production, new coal-fired power plants, and a lack of investment in domestic coal mines. In addition, port and infrastructure development is expected to more than quadruple coal handling capacity by 2020, all of which generally leads projections for future coal imports to be bullish. While imports may well still grow strongly over the long-term, recent coal exports to India have fallen, with exports decreasing from 12.7mt in May to 9.7mt in September. This could be related to financial constraints, and currency movements may also affect Indian imports further in the months to come.

No Such Export Luck
A weaker currency also makes a countrys exports cheaper to other nations, potentially raising export levels. However, this benefit may not be as applicable to Indias dry bulk exports.

Whilst India exported 103.1 mt of iron ore in 2010, exports in years to come are extremely unlikely to exceed this level again, after a wave of corruption scandals, export bans and export duty rises have considerably reduced iron ore export volumes. Therefore the weaker rupee is unlikely to bring any such benefits to Indias bulk export industry.

So, the weaker rupee does harm the position of Indian buyers in the global market, and is thus a potentially worrying development for the bulk market in the short-term, especially since little benefit can be expected from more competitive Indian exports. However, Indian development and demand growth are still projected to significantly raise trade volumes over the long-term, even if currency movements are hindering trade at the moment.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping



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