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Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new year, in order to proceed with new dry bulk orders. As a result, the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) fell once again on Wednesday to 1,856 points, down by 1.17% on the day, with Panamaxes erasing the previous gains and losing 2.16% on the day. The Baltic Panamax Index now stands at 1,720 points. Similarly, demand has thinned out for Capesizes, with the respective index falling by 1.09% yesterday to 3,526 points. Supramaxes were unchanged, while the demise of the smaller Handysizes wasn’t about to end yesterday.

Commenting on the Panamax market, shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report that “limited fresh business appearing in both hemispheres as Christmas is getting closer, causing the market to slide slowly. As the majority of December cargoes have been cleared out and the list of open positions is growing, expectations for the coming days and weeks are not over enthusiastic. 15k for TA, 25k for trip out, and 11k for Pacific rounds represents market levels this week. 2011 seems to end where it started, with a BPI on about 14000 and on a downward trend. Fluctuating from lowest 10372 Feb 2nd to highest 17115 March 11th the year is about to close with an average BPI also at 14000. With a descending forward curve passing 11500 for 2012 it may be highly relevant to wish all market participants a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!” said Fearnleys.

On a similar note, Piraeus-based shipbroker Shiptrade Services mentioned that in the Atlantic basin “we saw fresh cargoes in the market, and few vessels were fixed for short period, a few transatlantic round with coal via USEC, and in the Mediterranean a few round trips with grains ex Bl.Sea. At week’s end, rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 15.900 per day, while on the Fronthaul, rates concluded at USD 26.000per day, or close to USD 26.000 + 600.000 ballast bonus basis APS USG. In the Pacific basin Owners were also unwilling to drop their rates as some fresh cargoes ex NOPAC or Australia emerged into the market. Many fixtures were reported at levels of USD 10.000 – 11.500 per day basis N.China delivery for a trip via NOPAC, while rates for trip ex Australia concluded close to USD 12.000 per day” said Shiptrade.

Referring to the Capesize market, Shiptrade stated that Atlantic basin is getting quiet, but Pacific remained active. Rates in the Atlantic started to ease since there was not much of activity. Rates for trips to F.East concluded at USD 55.000 per day, while rates for Transatlantic round concluded close to USD 32.000 per day. Fronthaul market was also quiet but some fixtures concluded around USD 29.50 - 30.50pmt basis Tubarao/ Qingdao.

Pacific basin seemed to be a bit active with Iron ore majors covering about 10 vessels. At week’s end, rates for the Dampier/Qingdao trade concluded around USD12.00 pmt. On TCT basis, rates for Pacific round concluded at USD 31.500 per day basis N.China delivery.

Panamax: Market moved upwards across both basins, as Owners seemed reluctant to reduce their levels and held their position” said Shiptrade.

Meanwhile, Fearnleys mentioned that the Cape market has remained strong in the near term, but sharply dropping off for slightly forward dates. “Spot Pacific vessels have commanded high premiums with an extreme high of USD 17.20 being paid, for West Australia to China, at the end of last week for very tight dates. End December cancelling has demanded USD 14.50, while second half January is being fixed at a much lower USD 11.25. January front haul positions are very tight with few or no ballaster, and recent rumours indicate rates for Brazil/China being paid well over USD 30.00 (perhaps even USD 32.00). The one-year period market has now been done at a new high of USD 18500. Although the curve has moved, the sentiment is still pessimistic and the forward market is discounted heavily” said the shipbroker in its report.

On the Supramax front, Shiptrade said that “rates remained steady accoss both basins. In the Atlantic basin, still USG region still is the best place to be as rates for trip to continent/East Mediterranean remained at USD mid 20’s per day, while for trips to F.East fixtures reported at USD low/mid 30’s per day. Ex Continent, rates for trips to East Mediterranean/ Bl.Sea concluded around USD 18.000 per day. On the Fronthaul trade, rates for trips ex Continent concluded at USD low/mid 20’s per day, while trips ex Bl.Sea via G.O.A concluded at USD mid 20’s per day even though there were not so many cargoes available. Pacific basin saw rates stabilising and some fixtures reported at very good rates, since both Charterers and Owners were looking to cover their vessels/cargoes prior Christmas. Positions in S.China/S.E.Asia interested for Indonesian coal to China were fixed at rates around USD 6-7.000per day. On the other hand, for the N.China positions, there were a few cargoes ex NOPAC, and one or two fixtures reported at USD 7.000per day + 400.000 ballast bonus basis APS” concluded Shiptrade.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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