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Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smaller ship sizes, with the bright exception of Panamaxes, which have been steadily recovering this week from earlier losses. As a result the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was down by 1.2% to 1,889 points, with Capesize leading the losses. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 2,22% to 3,571 points, while both Supramaxes and Handysizes were also on the negative track, losing 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.

In a report this week from shipbrokers Intermodal, the issue of ship financing was the main focus. According to the shipbroker, troubles remain in the sector and have seemingly deteriorated further as news continues to surface with regard to financially troubled ship owners and ship finance houses. An increasing number of listed shipping companies have been filing for Chapter 11, many are ugently looking to restructure their debt and secure their financial position, while others are resorting to cancelling new building orders, because of their inability to follow through with them.

Intermodal’s George Lazaridis said that “since Since the start of the crisis, financing has been limited for shipping companies as most western markets are strapped for cash. Many German owners have already felt the deteriorating conditions as their traditional source of financing, the KG market, has been dried up and is unlikely any time soon to witness similar funding volumes compared to those in the past. In the rest of Europe, banks are lacking lending capability and due to the heavy regulations and stress tests they are subjected to, have been trying to restructure most of their portfolios and are not in their current state ready to extend to much new business and new clients.

With the European debt crisis looking to continue while at the same time fundamentals point to a poorly performing freight market in 2012, it is expected that we will see financing problems carry on for shipowners. They will have to find novel ways to manage their cash flows and ride out the storm. On the other hand, all this turmoil has surfaced and will continue to provide perfect investment opportunities for cash rich shipowners. Secondhand prices have dropped considerably for both tankers and bulkers this year, while current earnings, although at low levels, are ample enough to cover in most cases OPEX costs and fairly inexpensive CAPEX costs. What’s more is that buying at current levels means that you have secured shipping assets at fairly close to their rock bottom levels and as long as you can operate them and maintain them long enough there is opportunity for considerable gains to be made once the tide turns. After all, shipping is a long term investment and is accustomed to market cycles just like any other market” said Mr. Lazaridis.

He went to state that with all that in mind and considering the fact that there are few investment options out there beyond shipping, that can secure a highly enticing return; “shipping assets remain a comparably good and sound investment option. One only has to look at the US and European stock markets these past months to confirm this. Going back a couple of years and you would find your stockbroker advising you that the safest bet in the stockmarket is shares in large financial organisations; claiming guaranteed return and ever increasing prices. It is not the opinion of this writer that shipping assets are a safer bet, but to “shipping people” it is an investment decision they know and understand much better. That on its own makes for much better risk management.

It is no surprise therefore that we see the same nationalities holding the top position for shipping investments. Greeks continue to lead the SnP market and are likely to close the year with an investment of over $ 4.5bn in secondhand vessels, while Chinese are close second though with a considerably lower total investment sum. What drives the point home is that this was done in the back drop of a major Greek sovereign debt crisis which has been unfolding since early 2010” concluded Lazaridis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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