We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR BALANCE AS WE ENTER 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 During the past few months, freight rates for dry bulk carriers, especially Capesizes have increased significantly, providing ship owners with a much needed boost. Still, the oversupply haven't been solved overnight. This will take a few more years to happen, provided that newbuilding orders remain at modest levels and scrapping of older ones doesn't seize.In an interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, BIMCO's
Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that for the coming couple of months, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day. but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. "Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval" said Sand.He went to add that 2012 is likely to become as challenging as 2011. The pressure from the supply-side is set to ease a bit and drift down to around 11-12% but unfortunately the demand-side also looks set to end on the softer side of 2011.
Looking back in 2011, how would you describe this year in terms of dry bulk freight rates and the general movement of the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index)?
Following the positive surprise that the industry experienced during 2010, 2011 have been very different. The combination of several demand-side disruptions and a freak wave of new built tonnage entering the fleet, has made the BDI drop by a significant 44% y-o-y. The fact that the amount of tonnage that went to the breakers was double-up on our initial forecast helped a lot, but cannot prevent the overall fleet to grow by 14%.
The year has been full of surprises. I’ll guess only very few had foreseen the main events of 2011 before they actually happened. The “Arab spring”, the massive flooding in Australia and South Africa and the triple disaster in Japan all events that was affecting dry bulk as well as wet bulk to a large extent. The Capesize segment was mostly hurt. During the first half of year, average time charter earnings of USD 8,500 per day only just covered OPEX for most vessels, leaving nothing to pay financial costs. But after a bit of a summer lull for Capesizes, freight rates really took off in August when China resumed massive buying of iron ore at a time when tonnage was tight in Atlantic basin. Congestion in both exporting and importing ports went up and lifted rates to year-high level where they are still hovering. The fact that the freight rate today is close to USD 30,000 per day is a positive surprise too – framing a year full of surprises and ending it on a happy note.
How is the current balance between demand and supply being shapen up?
The winter market is providing some support to the markets – and when you look at rates for Panamax and Handymax at USD 15,000 per day it actually not that bad when you look at it from a historical perspective. Trouble is of course that the fleet that ploughs the seas today is purchased at relatively higher prices than ever before – requiring higher rates to break even – when taking account of financing costs on top of ordinary OPEX.
For the coming couple of months, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.
Despite struggling rates for the most part of the year, 2011 also saw a lot of newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers. Which factors triggered this development?
From a fundamental point of view – the amount of tonnage that has been ordered during 2011 is sustainable; if you look at 2011 in solitude. Tonnage equivalent to 4% of the active fleet is a more or less what is required to renew a fleet that has a lifetime of 25 years. Moreover it is actually the lowest level of new orders placed since 2002, surpassing even 2009 where 35.6 million DWT was ordered. However, the problem is that 2010-2013 are all years of massive inflow of new tonnage. In order to get the balance back we should have a couple of years with deliveries below the sustainable trend to let demand catch up and balance the market once again.
It seems that 2011 was a record year for demolition activity of older vessels. Would things be a lot worse, shouldn’t those vessels had been sold for scrap?
The amount of demolished tonnage during 2011 has been a much welcomed wonder. And it has certainly provided some relief to the markets, mostly in the larger segments and specifically amongst Capesizes. The pressure on these big ships in particular has been eased by this. A few numbers illustrates this very clearly. The number of Capesize scrapped during 2011 (approx. 68) is equal to the number of Capesize vessels being scrapped during the preceding ten years! In the case that no Capesizes had been recycled the segment would have grown by more than 20% - matching the level of 2009 and 2010. But the demolition activity has cut growth by some 5%.
Do you expect a similar record of demolitions in 2012 as well, or is this dependant upon market swings?
Since freight rates took off in the Capesize segment by mid-August, only few vessels have been sold for recycling. The correlation between freight rates and the amount of recycled tonnage is quite strong right now. BIMCO do not foresee the record from this year to be duplicated in 2012. Our forecast for 2012 is that 10 million DWT is going to leave the fleet by demolition. But the estimate contains a pure upside potential, if rates are facing heat to the tune of first-half of 2011.
Going forward into 2012, do you expect newbuilding deliveries to outpace demand again, or will things slow down versus 2011?
In BIMCO we foresee that 2012 is likely to become as challenging as 2011. The pressure from the supply-side is set to ease a bit and drift down to around 11-12% but unfortunately the demand-side also looks set to end on the softer side of 2011. This leave the present fundamental imbalance between supply and demand more or less all-square – but as the global economy is still in a very fragile condition that now also means that China is slowing down, most risk are probably to be found on the downside.
Which will be the average rates for dry bulk ship types in 2012, according to your view and why?
We see 2012 is likely to become another 2011 on average. As China and India is going to grow a tad slower in the coming year this is like to limit the upside risk to our scenario. The global economic situation must be resolved before demand can surprise on the upside to a large extent. The yards will probably set 80 million DWT of to sea during the year – but handling the supply side remains an internal job. Use a variety of tools from the toolbox: slow steam, postpone/delay delivery, sign only new orders to a very limited extent, focus on customers and work closely together with all your stakeholders.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 19 December 11
PLN WILL NO LONGER BUY COAL FROM TRADERS
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state electricity company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara will no longer allow traders to become their suppliers, said, its ...
Saturday, 17 December 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO HAVE ALMOST BOTTOMED OUT AND MAY REMAIN STEADY AT THESE LEVELS CAPT REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index closed lower this week with BDI closing at 1,888 points (down by 1.76 pct) and Cape index at 3,572 points (dow ...
Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smal ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
BERAU SEES INDIA AS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR LOW-CALORIE COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Publicly listed coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), the fifth largest coal producer in Indonesia, sees ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
PANAMAX HARDLY AFFECTED BY THE RECENT FIRMER TENDENCY FOR THE BIG SISTERS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The rates are more or less the same as last week. Continent/US Gulf fixing at tick below USD 10k and Gulf/Continent levels at USD 25k. Trips ...
|
|
|
Showing 4926 to 4930 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
