We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR BALANCE AS WE ENTER 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 During the past few months, freight rates for dry bulk carriers, especially Capesizes have increased significantly, providing ship owners with a much needed boost. Still, the oversupply haven't been solved overnight. This will take a few more years to happen, provided that newbuilding orders remain at modest levels and scrapping of older ones doesn't seize.In an interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, BIMCO's
Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that for the coming couple of months, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day. but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. "Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval" said Sand.He went to add that 2012 is likely to become as challenging as 2011. The pressure from the supply-side is set to ease a bit and drift down to around 11-12% but unfortunately the demand-side also looks set to end on the softer side of 2011.
Looking back in 2011, how would you describe this year in terms of dry bulk freight rates and the general movement of the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index)?
Following the positive surprise that the industry experienced during 2010, 2011 have been very different. The combination of several demand-side disruptions and a freak wave of new built tonnage entering the fleet, has made the BDI drop by a significant 44% y-o-y. The fact that the amount of tonnage that went to the breakers was double-up on our initial forecast helped a lot, but cannot prevent the overall fleet to grow by 14%.
The year has been full of surprises. I’ll guess only very few had foreseen the main events of 2011 before they actually happened. The “Arab spring”, the massive flooding in Australia and South Africa and the triple disaster in Japan all events that was affecting dry bulk as well as wet bulk to a large extent. The Capesize segment was mostly hurt. During the first half of year, average time charter earnings of USD 8,500 per day only just covered OPEX for most vessels, leaving nothing to pay financial costs. But after a bit of a summer lull for Capesizes, freight rates really took off in August when China resumed massive buying of iron ore at a time when tonnage was tight in Atlantic basin. Congestion in both exporting and importing ports went up and lifted rates to year-high level where they are still hovering. The fact that the freight rate today is close to USD 30,000 per day is a positive surprise too – framing a year full of surprises and ending it on a happy note.
How is the current balance between demand and supply being shapen up?
The winter market is providing some support to the markets – and when you look at rates for Panamax and Handymax at USD 15,000 per day it actually not that bad when you look at it from a historical perspective. Trouble is of course that the fleet that ploughs the seas today is purchased at relatively higher prices than ever before – requiring higher rates to break even – when taking account of financing costs on top of ordinary OPEX.
For the coming couple of months, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.
Despite struggling rates for the most part of the year, 2011 also saw a lot of newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers. Which factors triggered this development?
From a fundamental point of view – the amount of tonnage that has been ordered during 2011 is sustainable; if you look at 2011 in solitude. Tonnage equivalent to 4% of the active fleet is a more or less what is required to renew a fleet that has a lifetime of 25 years. Moreover it is actually the lowest level of new orders placed since 2002, surpassing even 2009 where 35.6 million DWT was ordered. However, the problem is that 2010-2013 are all years of massive inflow of new tonnage. In order to get the balance back we should have a couple of years with deliveries below the sustainable trend to let demand catch up and balance the market once again.
It seems that 2011 was a record year for demolition activity of older vessels. Would things be a lot worse, shouldn’t those vessels had been sold for scrap?
The amount of demolished tonnage during 2011 has been a much welcomed wonder. And it has certainly provided some relief to the markets, mostly in the larger segments and specifically amongst Capesizes. The pressure on these big ships in particular has been eased by this. A few numbers illustrates this very clearly. The number of Capesize scrapped during 2011 (approx. 68) is equal to the number of Capesize vessels being scrapped during the preceding ten years! In the case that no Capesizes had been recycled the segment would have grown by more than 20% - matching the level of 2009 and 2010. But the demolition activity has cut growth by some 5%.
Do you expect a similar record of demolitions in 2012 as well, or is this dependant upon market swings?
Since freight rates took off in the Capesize segment by mid-August, only few vessels have been sold for recycling. The correlation between freight rates and the amount of recycled tonnage is quite strong right now. BIMCO do not foresee the record from this year to be duplicated in 2012. Our forecast for 2012 is that 10 million DWT is going to leave the fleet by demolition. But the estimate contains a pure upside potential, if rates are facing heat to the tune of first-half of 2011.
Going forward into 2012, do you expect newbuilding deliveries to outpace demand again, or will things slow down versus 2011?
In BIMCO we foresee that 2012 is likely to become as challenging as 2011. The pressure from the supply-side is set to ease a bit and drift down to around 11-12% but unfortunately the demand-side also looks set to end on the softer side of 2011. This leave the present fundamental imbalance between supply and demand more or less all-square – but as the global economy is still in a very fragile condition that now also means that China is slowing down, most risk are probably to be found on the downside.
Which will be the average rates for dry bulk ship types in 2012, according to your view and why?
We see 2012 is likely to become another 2011 on average. As China and India is going to grow a tad slower in the coming year this is like to limit the upside risk to our scenario. The global economic situation must be resolved before demand can surprise on the upside to a large extent. The yards will probably set 80 million DWT of to sea during the year – but handling the supply side remains an internal job. Use a variety of tools from the toolbox: slow steam, postpone/delay delivery, sign only new orders to a very limited extent, focus on customers and work closely together with all your stakeholders.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 29 December 11
NEW VESSELS DELIVERED ARE FLOODING THE OCEANS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected 2011 has been the year that newbuilding deliveries peaked and kept "flooding" the market, thus supressing freight rates and er ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
MINERS MAKE CASE FOR RESUMING CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, problems with the renegotiation of mining contracts in the country are far from over, as agreements on several cruci ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
COAL SHIPMENT OF TIANJIN PORT REACHED 6.72 MLN TONNES IN NOVEMBER - STEEL HOME / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tianjin port shipped 6.72 million tonnes of coal in November, decreasing 600,000 tonnes versus 7.32 million tonnes in October, while up 21.09% or 1. ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
NEW CLAUSE PUBLISHED FOR SLOW STEAMING - BIMCO
Many owners and operators faced with high bunker prices are considering implementing slow steaming regimes to save fuel and to assist with capacity ...
Monday, 26 December 11
NEW EXPORT TAX PLAN GREETED WITH PRAISE AND CRITICISM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the Indonesia's leading english news paper reported that, both praise and criticism showered the government’s plan t ...
|
|
|
Showing 4911 to 4915 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
