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Tuesday, 06 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS RALLY, STARTS WEEK WITH FALL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


After a series of increases which saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing close to 1,900 points and rates on some Capesize routes reaching a three-month high, the start of the new week brought this upward trend to a halt. Specifically, the BDI fell by 10 points to 1,856 points, with all major indices in negative territory. The Capesize segment of the market, which led most of the gains last week was lower yesterday to 3,390 points, while Panamaxes were also a bit lower to 1,693 points (Baltic Panamax Index).

In a statement from the Bedford Report, coal exports are recovering from supply disruptions in Australia, coinciding with a seasonal boost in shipments of the fuel and of grains, said Ole G. Stenhagen, an analyst at SEB Enskilda ASA in Oslo. The BDI's dramatic ascent could be short-lived, however. Khalid Hashim, managing director of Thai-listed Precious Shipping, told an industry conference he saw the BDI falling to as low as 1,000 points by year's end due to more ships taking to the seas. Reports from Reuters state that the dry bulk fleet -- responsible for shipping iron ore, coal and other commodities -- was expected to grow 13 percent this year to top a record 600 million deadweight tonnes despite demand rising by just 5 to 8 percent.

Still, fleet growth will outpace demand for commodities shipped in bulk and market sentiment will again turn negative in 2012, JPMorgan Cazenove said in a report at the end of the week, as mentioned in a Bloomberg article. Rates for single-voyage and longer-duration charters across the shipping industry are 60 percent lower than 10-year averages after owners ordered too many vessels before a 2008 collapse in rents, analysts led by London-based Christopher G. Combe said in the report. Deliveries of dry-bulk vessels will peak in 2012 based on outstanding orders for new ships, according to JPMorgan Cazenove, which initiated coverage on five maritime and offshore companies.

Meanwhile, in a separate story from Bloomberg yesterday, quoting Macquarie Capital Securities Inc., the Baltic Dry Index will take until 2014 to exceed an average level of 2,000 points, as iron ore production runs below estimates. “We believe 2012 will be the low point for rates, but that the recovery back to a BDI average of around 2,000 will take until 2014,” the bank said. Top global producer Vale SA’s output of the steelmaking raw material will be 26 percent lower next year than projected by the company in 2007, Macquarie said in a report e-mailed yesterday. That equates to a shortfall of 110 million metric tons, it said.

At the same time, the fleet is set to expand more quickly than demand to ship commodities, the report showed. The dry-bulk fleet’s growth next year will outpace an estimated 8 percent gain in demand to transport commodities by sea, even as scrapping of older vessels surges 48 percent, Macquarie analysts said in the report.

“Macquarie predicted the most pressure on earnings over the next two years for capesizes and panamaxes, the two largest dry- bulk vessel classes. They have the greatest surplus of capacity, the analysts said. The largest and smallest capesize subclasses, so-called very large ore carriers and mini-capes, had the biggest oversupply, Macquarie said, citing a presentation from Ian Sheriff, a representative of Zodiac Maritime Agencies Ltd. The London-based ship operator has a fleet of 34 capesizes and 13 very large ore carriers. Dry-bulk ships with a combined capacity of 37 million deadweight tons will be demolished next year, up from 25 million tons in 2011, the report showed. Vessel deliveries will drop to 70 million tons from 96 million tons this year, Macquarie forecast” said Bloomberg.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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