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Monday, 28 November 11
NEW ENVIRONMENTAL MARINE REGULATIONS TO IMPACT SHIPPING IN 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


August of next year will see some major changes for marine navigation. It’s when the North American ECA will come into force, introducing a 1% sulphur restriction, in line with the Baltic and North Sea Emission Control Areas (ECAs). According to London-based shipbrokers Gibson, this change is expected to have a significant impact on shipping. “The sulphur level in all ECAs is due to be further reduced to a 0.1% sulphur fuel limit from January 2015, which again is likely to have a major impact. Beyond this, the next major issue is the proposed IMO legislation shifting all bunkers to less than 0.5% sulphur, due to be introduced globally in 2020. However, it is highly unlikely that there will be sufficient availability of low sulphur fuel oil to meet this requirement by 2020 and the IMOs review process planned for 2018 is almost certain to delay the introduction of this low sulphur requirement until 2025.

At this time the reduction could leave owners with the decision to effectively rule out the use of all residual fuel, switching to low sulphur fuels such as distillate (with even LNG being discussed). However, the use of new technologies like scrubbers to meet the strict sulphur regulations may offer an alternative, although pilot projects suggest that current solutions may not yet be commercially viable. Nonetheless, with low sulphur prices as much as $80/tonne above high sulphur earlier this year, there could be a strong economic incentive to push these new technologies forward. Whilst there is huge uncertainty surrounding the scale of impact on shipping, it appears the only certainty is that this issue is not going to go away” said Gibson in its latest weekly report.

It’s worth noting that when the IMO (MARPOL Annex VI) capped today’s level of allowed sulphur content in marine fuels at 4.5% in 2005, the impact on bunker fuel availability was limited as few cases of heavy fuel oil (HFO) exceeded this sulphur cap. Gibson also mentioned that “following political pressure to further reduce sulphur emissions from shipping, a new set of sulphur requirements within MARPOL Annex VI are going to be implemented through the timetable outlined below. The next step will be introduced on 1st January 2012, when the global sulphur cap will be reduced to 3.5%. Whilst this may cause some tightness in availability at Fujairah and some Far East locations, it again appears manageable and likely to have only a limited impact” said Gibson.

In market news this week, the shipbroker’s report noted that “just as VLCC Owners in the Middle East Gulf had believed that they had handcuffed Charterers to the high WS 60’s East - and perhaps could pull them even higher, a short gap in the cargo flow quickly translated into nervousness, and rates fell by up to 10 worldscale points to end the week as low as WS 58.5 East and WS 38 West. That just about wraps up the First half December programme, so owners will have to hope that the total monthly volumes get close to those of November, which would then lead to the necessary tightness for another rebound/spike” said Gibson.

It went to mention that “Suezmaxes saw some extra potential interest as Charterers investigated splitting VLCC stems, but the softening in that sector pulled that plug, and levels couldn’t move much above 130,000 by WS 85 East and WS 52.5 West. Aframaxes got a bit busier, and rates moved up to around 80,000 by WS 117.5 accordingly.

Higher levels aren’t looking likely, but there should be enough to keep things steady over the near term. Suezmaxes in West Africa did, initially, enjoy reasonable pre-Thanksgiving attention, but yet again, Owners failed miserably to glean any advantage. Rates ticked over in the low/mid WS 70’s for all destinations, and although one early position did post a WS 80+ level, that was not achievable on the more populous forward dates. VLCCs relied upon Eastern movements for any employment, and found just enough to keep rates stable at WS 60/62.5 East with around USD 3.8 mill the mark for West Coast India.

The Caribbean became necessarily compromised by the U.S. holiday, but had previously maintained last weeks' gain to 70,000 by WS 122.5 upcoast, though the extended break is likely to re-set things a little lower for the start of the next campaign. VLCCs generally kept steady, but there were signs of just a little slippage with USD 3.95 m reported for a Caribbean/Singapore run late-week. No free-fall likely, however. A very non-descript scene in the Mediterranean for aframaxes. Not enough enquiry to tighten the rope, and rates stayed soggy at down to 80,000 by WS 82.5 cross-Mediterranean all week, with another soft period likely. Suezmaxes also couldn’t muster sufficient ammunition to blast their way out of their box, and rates moved little better than 135,000 by WS 72.5 from the Black Sea with even a spell of bad weather failing to have a positive impact. Little early rate change likely” concluded the shipbroker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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