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Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the other shipping segments, with the exception of Handysizes, which kept falling. According to the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the market was higher by 2.06% yesterday, reacing 1.884 points, with Capesizes stealing the “show”, as the relative BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) increasing by 3.7% to 3,223 points. Panamaxes were also higher by 0.85% to 1,784 points.

In its latest weekly report, Shiptrade Services commented on the Capesize market by saying that experienced a positive week across both basins. “Atlantic basin was tight for prompt tonnage and Charterers had to increase their levels. Rates for Transatlantic rounds concluded at USD 33.000per day, while on the Fronthaul trade, rates for trips to F.East, levels concluded at USD 47.000per day. On the Tubarao/Qingdao trade there were not many prompt ballasters from the Pacific, and rates picked up at USD 25.25 pmt. In the Pacific basin, the iron ore majors came into the market and covered some of the prompt tonnage which resulted in rates improvement. At weeks end, rates for the Australia/China trade concluded at USD 11.50pmt, while on TCT basis, rates for Pacific round concluded at USD 22.000 per day basis N.China delivery”.

Similarly, on the Panamax front it noted that “rates in the Atlantic softened just a bit, but rates in the Pacific are under pressure. In the Atlantic basin we saw a clear out on the prompt vessels, with rates remaining more or less at the same levels since last week, or soften just a touch. Rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 16-16.500, while rates for Fronthaul trips concluded at USD 24-25.500per day. Rates for trips ex USG to F.East concluded at USD 25.500+550.000 BB basis APS USG. In the Pacific basin activity was not high as there were not many cargoes ex Indonesia or Australia and tonnage was building up. At week’s closing, rates for S.China/S.E.Asia positions interested for Indonesia round, concluded at USD 11.500 – 12.000per day. For positions at N.China/Japan range interested for trips ex NOPAC there were just a few parcels and fixtures reported at rates of USD 10-11.000per day” mentioned Shiptrade Services.

Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipbroker Intermodal warned that despite the high number of ships sold for demolition this year, oversupply remains a headache for most ship owners and especially for those who own or operate Capesizes. “This size has suffered extensively since the beginning of the summer and despite the recent recovery recorded since early September, it is forecast to face serious problems in the coming months and years as well. Fleet growth is forecast to increase by as much as 40% within next three years, meaning that there will be no shortage of tonnage in the market for the next couple of years. At the same time iron ore demand is predicted to stagnate to low single digit growth levels over the same time period” said Intermodal’s Panos Makrinos in his analysis.

He went on to add that “the world’s dry bulk shipping industry experienced a extraordinary over supply of dry bulk vessels which resulted in the almost complete collapse of freight rates for Capes and VLOCs. According to Mr. David Smith, director assistant at PwC strategy, ship-owners were wrongfully placing their hope on a Chinese demand for iron ore that would continue to grow at the same pace as it had done over the past decade. Although there is still an amazing infrastructure investment growth rate in China, it will only partly cover and counterbalance the oversupply of capesize tonnage in the near future.

Despite all these pessimistic views for this size vessel, we have seen considerable activity in the secondhand market in comparison to all other dry bulk size segments this year. Up until now we have seen a total of 41 Capes having exchanged hands. What’s more notable is that close to 40% of these were done during the summer period (July-September) were the freight market was scrapping close to bottom. Secondhand prices have not followed a similar decline to that seen in the freight market this year, with price levels on average dropping by only 20% since January. With all that in mind, it seems that there is now only a few number of buyers out there which are holding a positive investment outlook and ready to act, while at the same time scrap prices have also started to soften. Considering all of the above, it is likely that we will see a number of owners who are pressured by high debt, selling their capesize vessels and in effect exiting this size segment before the market is burdened with further new deliveries. Of course, the recent recovery in Capesize rates has been substantial these last three months, but this cannot be taken as something permanent since the continued overcapacity, will most probably push for another collapse within next year if not earlier” concluded Intermodal in its analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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