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Tuesday, 25 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, ANALYSTS LOOKING FOR ADDED PRESSURE ON THE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market was unchanged on Monday, with the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ending the session at 2,153 points, exactly where it was at the end of the previous week. The general trend was for added Capesize demand, with the relative BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) rising further to 3,597 points, or by 0.87% on the day. All other segments were down, with Panamaxes losing 1.33%.

In its weekly analysis of the dry bulk market, Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) said that the market seems to be at a crossroad once more. “The indices last week remained fairly stable (except for the Panamax sector), ending the week as follows: the BDI at 2,153 points (-0.9%), the BCI at 3,566 (-0.6%), the BPI at 2,026 (-2.8%), the BSI at 1,607 (+0.8%) and the BHI at 826 points (+0.5%). Falling iron ore prices continued to prompt discussion, as Chinese steel prices also fell to a 10-month low last week in response to moderating construction demand. Recent steel prices have prompted some Chinese producers to cut output or bring forward maintenance. 62% fine CFR Tianjin finished the week at $142.6 per tonne. The cash price of ore has not traded at less than $140 per ton since September 2010” said BRS.

Reffering to the Capesize market, the shipbroker said that “despite the Coaltrans conference in Madrid, and the near one-year high achieved by Capesize rates the previous week, there was no major correction in the market. Overall the BCI came off just 0.6%, while the four time charter average only budged $324 to finish at $30,975. Regionally, Tubarao-Qingdao rates actually rose, and a mid November cargo was reported at $30 per tonne, with plenty of activity in both basins in the second half of the week. Paper rates meanwhile saw significant gains over the week, suggesting confidence for the short term is there. November and Q4 contracts recorded gains of 12.6% and 9.8% respectively w-o-w. Monday saw more positive signs, with the 4TC rising $437, compensating for the losses of the previous week” it said.

As for the Panamax market, reportedly it was strong last with ‘high’ rates seen until midweek.

“The end of the week was relatively quiet, and it was the same for the start of the new week. Both TA and Pacific RV kept improving and respectively reached $18-$18,300 and $15,600-$15,800 on Wednesday, with fronthaul rates reaching up to $26,500/day. That said, the market marked a pause with tonnage building up in the Atlantic and Pacific. Fronthaul was reported in the $25,500 region and TA was hovering in the $17,800-$18,000 area. The market now appears to be topping out. The only market which remained tight the whole week was the Indian market with very little tonnage available for WCI to China trip. We are now expecting a drop in rates as a fair number of ballasters from the East could hit the Atlantic market very soon, so a weak second half of November is predicted, with many players strongly bearish” concluded BRS, in its report.

Meanwhile, in a note from Commodore Research & Consultancy, ship owners were warned of the fact that Chinese iron ore demand will continue to come under sporadic pressure. “Only 11 vessels were chartered to ship iron ore to China last week, 17 less than the previous week and 12 less than the trailing four week average”. The reasons are that “Chinese steel prices came under sharp pressure last week, which indicates a continued decline in domestic demand. The average price of 3.0mm hot rolled coil in China is now 4,380 yuan/ton ($686), 320 yuan (-7%) less than a week ago. This marks the sixth consecutive week that Chinese steel prices have decreased. Last week’s decline was the largest week-on-week decline since October 2009. In addition to the ongoing decline in Chinese steel prices, Chinese steel stockpiles have continued to increase. Stockpiles of Chinese flat and construction steel products currently total approximately 15.1 million tons, 200,000 tons (2%) more than was

stocked a week ago and 1.3mt (9%) more than was stocked at the start of September. Going forward, Chinese steel production appears likely come under additional pressure during at least the next few weeks. Stockpiles need to be drawn down before a rebound in production can occur” concluded Commodore. 
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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