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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Tuesday, 06 September 11
SEMEN GRESIK TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE FOR RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) is planning to acquire a low calorific value coal concession (IUP). According to Semen Gresik, the coal mi ...
Tuesday, 06 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY POWERS THROUGH TO NEW WEEK, BUT A CORRECTION COULD BE OVERDUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s freights rates kept leaping forwards during the beginning of the week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic D ...
Monday, 05 September 11
TNPL POSTPONES BID OPENING UNTIL 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
COALspot.com - TNPL has postponed submission of the offer until 12 September 2011 on request from the supplier, an Indian trader said.
Due to Ram ...
Monday, 05 September 11
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE - ANALYSIS
Analyst : Sunil K Kumbhat
COALspot.com - As a part of the Government’s efforts to stop transfer pricing abuses which have resulted in the los ...
Saturday, 03 September 11
FEW SHIPS REPORTED FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI up by about 13 pct closing at 1,740 points and cape index up ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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