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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will modera ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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