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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Saturday, 15 October 11
BENGAL COAL IMPORT TEST - THE TELEGRAPH
The Telegraph reported that, the power position in Bengal improved today but alarm bells are ringing over imported coal stocks that are running out ...
Friday, 14 October 11
CAPE DERIVATIVES MARKET HAS NOT REFLECTED OWNERS EXPECTATIONS' - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its upward trend, with fresh cargo entering the market. Skaw Passero to US Gulf climbed US$ 1500 from la ...
Friday, 14 October 11
ADARO BUYS SERVO MEDA FOR RP200 BIO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) announced that its subsidiary PT Alam Tri Abadi (ATI), acquired 35% stake in PT Serv ...
Thursday, 13 October 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ANALYSTS WARN IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market continued its push forward yesterday, for yet another session, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edg ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
INDONESIAS COAL RUSH - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Last winter, the Chinese government mobilized thousands of soldiers and reservists of the People’s Liberation Army to the port ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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