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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Tuesday, 01 November 11
ATLAS RESOURCES SETS IPO AT RP1,500 - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal miner PT Atlas Resources Tbk has set its initial public offering (IPO) at Rp1,500 (approximately US$ 0.169) per ...
Tuesday, 01 November 11
DRY BULK MARKETS CORRECTION SPILLS OVER ONTO NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is losing steam, as evidenced by the falls experienced last week, which were also apparent at the beginning of the new week. A l ...
Monday, 31 October 11
CHINAS HUNGER FOR INDONESIAN COAL AT THREE YEAR-HIGH AS WINTER NEARS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Chinese demand for power-station coal from Indonesia has soared to its highest level in three years, as central heating plants and po ...
Saturday, 29 October 11
ATLAS RESOURCES SEALS US$95 MIO LOAN - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, has secured US$95 mill ...
Saturday, 29 October 11
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN SOFT
COALspot.com - The market continued to slow down and all segment were down this week.
The biggest drop was in the Cape Index down by 8.19 pct&nbs ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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