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Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS


With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 (11.5%), the BPI at 2,084 (+8.9%), the BSI 1,594 (+4%) and the BHI moved to 822 points (+6.2%).  In the iron ore market, recent volatility in ore prices has prompted some mining companies to sidestep the quarterly pricing mechanism and offer ore at spot prices. Market sources say Chinese mills are reluctant to pay the fourth quarter contract price of $175 per tonne (based on the average for the previous quarter) when current spot prices are just $160 per tonne. Instead Vale has reportedly offered fourth-quarter prices based on the average for October-December spot rates. The move could encourage continued buying by the Chinese, especially as prices have continued to fall in recent days.

Capesize 
An unexpected second week of gains for the Cape size market, with the 4TC hitting its highest rate since November 2010 on Friday. Activity was very strong in the Pacific, with plenty of fixtures concluded. Hedland-Qingdao saw the biggest gains during the week, as buyers returned from the Chinese holidays, and there were even rumors of a post-$13 per tonne deal. The continued good activity has resulted in rising congestion in China, and almost 70 ships were seen at anchorage in the country by Friday. This compares to 45 vessels the previous week, with nearly 90 ships expected over the next fortnight. However the BCI fell nearly 50 points on Monday, and the Coaltrans conference in Madrid is also expected to lead to a quieter market in the coming week.

Panamax  
The Atlantic basin remained tight on prompt tonnage, with reasonable volumes of USG/China business being concluded. There was also an increase in TA stems towards the end of the week, providing additional support to the market (an increase of $1,437 on 1A and $1,608 on the 2A indices), although there is a feeling the market may begin to stabilize if business out of the Gulf thins. In addition to this, Coaltrans in the early part of the coming week could subdue the market somewhat. Looking forward, the trend in the Atlantic could well steady after the rises in recent weeks. The Pacific market also continued to climb over the week, with cargo volumes remaining healthy. Having said this, the level of activity seemed to tail off a touch towards the end of the week with some expectations for a more stable index in the coming days, and little in the way of fresh business being concluded at the beginning of the new week.

Supramax/Handy 
The market was very firm last week and even though we felt there were signs of slowing towards the end of the week, the indices were still on the rise. For Supras, the Baltic Index gained 50 points to end at 1,594, with the TC average increasing by $521 to finish at $16,150. Modern Supras were fixed very quickly with none left in ECSA for October dates.  From the USG, cargoes to the Far East were fixed in the mid $30,000s, and in the low $30,000s to the Continent.  For trips from West Coast Africa via ECSA to the Far East, rates were around $23-24,000. For the smaller sizes, the market was also strong and kept on increasing  with the Index gaining 36 points to finish at 822. The TC average for the Handies increased by $476 to end the week at $11,911. Fewer fixtures were reported for Handies than for Supras however from the Continent; Handies were fixed to the Med in the mid/ high $10,000s. From the Med, Handies were fixed to East Coast South America at $10,000. In the East, Supras were fixed around $15,000 dop China via Indonesia redelivery Far East. Aussie rounds on Handies were fixed around $12,000.  On period, a couple of modern Supras were taken in the Far East for short period at around $15,000 with redelivery worldwide. A couple of Supras were taken for a year around $14-14,500 with delivery in the Far East and worldwide redelivery.
Source: Barry Rogliano Salles



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