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Saturday, 06 June 09
IS THE RECESSION OVER ? - CAPT. REDDY, VISTAAR SHIPPING


COALspot.com (Singapore):  Is the recession over, that is what most analysts think and seems so from the Baltic Index rally and firm commodity prices.

The Baltic Index continued to rally this week with an increase of 309 points and ending at 3803 points. However the BDI dropped in the later part of the week but overall still appeared to be firm. Next weeks seems will be steady .

The Cape size sector continued to be firm and saw a increase of 687 point and ending with 6812 points. Panamax also gained 352 points and ending at 3252 points. The supramax and Handysize was almost stable ending at 1832 points and 880 points respectively.

"The average charters at the closing of the week is Cape / US$ 76,396 pday; Panamax / US$ 26,077 pday ; Supramax / US$ 19,152 pday and Handysize / US$ 12,690 pday" - Vistaar Shipping

The South American and US Gulf market remained firm. However in the Far East / South East Asia the demand was weak and quite a few spot ships were ballasting south wards. The Chinese imports of iron ore and coal seemed to remain firm. The cargoes bound to India also likely to remain strong especially in steam coal and fertilizers. The cargo movement seems quite good and freight market is expected to be fairly firm.

However with lot of New deliveries in the second half of 2009, there could be over supply of tonnage and the market could remain flat. The bunker prices continued to remain firm with brent crude touching almost US$ 70 per barrel and the IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore was around US$ 400 pmt levels.

The crude prices is expected to remain firm over next couple of weeks and hence the bunker prices also would be high.

The short period (4/6 months)rates for supramax continued to remain firm at around US$ 16000 per day with delivery Feast/SE Asia region future.

One year period rate for supramax reported at around US$ 14,000 -15,000 per day with delivery India / Far east region.

The forward freight rates for 3 / 5 months is expected to be around the same as the below indicated spot rates. The indicative spot freight rates on Supramax as follows:

Coal

- Indonesia / East Coast India        :  US$ 13.50 / 14.00 pmt
- Indonesia / West Coast India       :  US$ 17.00 / 17.50 pmt
- Richards Bay / WC India                :  US$ 19.00 / 19.50 pmt
- Richards Bay / East Coast India  :  US$ 20.00 / 20.50 pmt
- Queensland / East Coast India    :  US$ 19.50 / 20.00 pmt
 
 
Iron Ore

- Wast Coast India / N.China            :  US$  16.50 / 17.00 pmt
- East Coast India / N.China             :  US$  15.00 / 15.50 pmt



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