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Thursday, 13 October 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ANALYSTS WARN IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market continued its push forward yesterday, for yet another session, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edged higher to 2,127 points, up by 1%, reaching more than 12-month highs. The main gainer was the panamax market, with a rise of 2.22%, while Capesizes also gained 0.35% to reach 3,485 points.

According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s, referring to the Capesize market, it said that “last week fixing activity in the Pacific was active with one mayor in particular picking up many vessels despite the Chinese being on holiday. Rates pushed up from the mid usd 10´s into the low usd 11´s. As the market got going this week the rates continued with the entrance of other miners to the market pushing the rates further to a high of usd 12.35. Being a premium to the front haul level, something had to happen, and as a result the front haul Brazil/China has risen from usd 26 level to usd 28.50, and looks to move even further. The Index has kept pace with the market and has risen over 14% for the week to 3486. On the period front it has been relatively quiet as the paper (derivatives) market has not reflected owners´ expectations” said the report.

In a separate market report, Shiptrade Services mentioned on the Capesize market that the “week began slowly, but market increased as a result of tight tonnage supply in the Atlantic.

In the Atlantic basin, market moved higher since there were some cargoes left since last week, and there was tight tonnage supply. At week’s closing Transatlantic round concluded at USD 36.000 per day, while on the Fronthaul trips, levels concluded at USD 52.000per day.

Activity in the Pacific basin remained at good levels. Indian came into the market, along with South Africa that remains an active area, so Owners had some available options. Rates for Pacific round concluded at USD 22.750 per day basis N.China delivery, while on the Australia/China trade, about 10 vessels got covered at levels between USD 10.60 – 11.25pmt” said Shiptrade.

On the Panamax front it said that the market moved higher as new cargoes emerged the market, but tonnage supply was tight. “In the Atlantic market still remained the driving force, especially the USG, as new cargoes were coming into the market and there was not enough tonnage supply to cover. At week’s closing, rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 16.000 per day. On the Front haul trade rates concluded at USD 27.000 per day. Activity in the Pacific was also good as many vessels were ballasting towards the Atlantic, while some fresh cargoes came into the market. At week’s closing, rates for Pacific round concluded around USD 9.000 – 10.500per day basis N.China delivery, or close to USD 11.500per day basis S.China – S.E.Asia delivery. Rates for trips Ex NOPAC concluded at levels around USD 14.000 – 14.500per day basis N.china/Japan range for BPI type vessel (M/V Fortune Clover 77.430/06’)” said Shiptrade.

Similarly, Fearnley’s noted that “after a good last week, levels keep firming up for October loaders in Atlantic where rounds are in the 17´s for T/A and 27 for trip out. Climbing further in the Pacific basin where NOPAC buiz is done above 16k. Monsoon season is over, and India is coming back to the market. With only a few vessels in good position, rates above 20k have been reported on WCIndia/China cargoes. More tonnage is appearing in the Pacific but with a healthy supplement of fresh coal cargoes, levels are expected to keep steady. In Pacific a fairly high amount of short period fixtures has been done above 14k, but most owners seek to charter out their vessel for 4/6 mos only” said the Nordic shipbroker.

As far as the Supramax market is concerned, Shiptrade said that activity remained good in the Atlantic, but Pacific was quiet. “In the Atlantic basin, rates improved with USG region keeping the league. Rates ex USG for trip to East Mediterranean concluded at USD 26.000 – 27.000 per day, while for trips to F.East rates concluded at USD 35.000 per day. The Mediterranean/Bl.Sea market saw rates declining just a bit as there were not so many cargoes available, but only some grains to Egypt mostly.

In the pacific region, we noticed rates sliding as an effect of the Chinese holidays and there were not many parcels available in the market. Most of the available cargoes were for direction India, with fixtures reported at levels around USD 14.000 – 16.000per day basis delivery S.China/S.E Asia range” concluded Shiptrade.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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