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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 17 September 11
GVK ACQUIRES HANCOCK COAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR US$ 1.26 BILLION
COALspot.com - GVK group, India’s leading infrastructure developer,confirmed arrangements for the acquisition of a strategic part of large, hi ...
Saturday, 17 September 11
INDIA'S GVK ACQUIRES HANCOCK COAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN AUSTRALIA
COALspot.com - GVK group, India’s leading infrastructure developer, today confirmed arrangements for the acquisition of a strategic part of la ...
Friday, 16 September 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REMOVED 30.9 MILLION BCM OVERBURDEN IN AUGUST 2011
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 30.9 million bcm (+13.2% YoY) overburden in August 2011 while coal production was at 2.9 ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
RUSSIAN COAL EXPORTS UP 10.9% IN JAN-AUG TO 71.50 MILLION TONS - PORT NEWS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Port News reported that, Coal exports from Russia in January-August 2011 grew by 10.9% compared with the same period last year, to 71.50 million ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
INDIAN GOVT PLANS TO DEVELOP 9 NEW MAJOR PORTS BY 2016 - INVEST MONEY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The government has announced to make a investment of more than Rs 22,000 crore (approximately US$ 4,623,791,331) to develop nine new major ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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