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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 23 September 11
UT TO PRODUCE 7 MMT OF COAL BY 2012
PT United Tractors Tbk is targeting a 7 million tons of coal production next year, a 55.55% increase from 4.5 millions targeted this year, said Pres ...
Friday, 23 September 11
RECORD RECYCLING ACTIVITY STIRS OPTIMISM IN DRY BULK SAYS BIMCOS ANALYSIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected at the start of the year, dry bulk ship owners were expected to flock scrapyards around the world, in order to take advantage of attract ...
Friday, 23 September 11
PANAMAX EXPERIENCED A SOFTENING IN RATES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Still a good boost of fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels in Black Sea with GOA clearance and Baltic positions are fetching tick abov ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA FALL, CHINA BUYS MORE
COALspot.com - Indian coal imports from Indonesia fall to below 6 million tons in August, and this fall was continuing last few months. Ho ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
2ND ANNUAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
2nd Annual Shale Gas Summit 31 October – 3 November 2011 JW Marriott Hotel, Hong Kong
According to a recent EI ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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