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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 27 September 11
A STRONG REBOUND FOR THE CAPE MARKET - BRS
A strong rebound for the Cape market, as cargoes continued to flow into the market and tonnage remained tight in the Atlantic, according to Barry Ro ...
Tuesday, 27 September 11
INTRACO SEALS US$25.3 MIO ORDER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) obtained a US$25.3 million order on hand of heavy equipments ...
Sunday, 25 September 11
THE CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market moved up sharply with the cape Index up by 11 pct pushing the BDI by almost 6 pct and closing at 1,920 point ...
Saturday, 24 September 11
GOVT PLANS TO RENEGOTIATE ALL CONTRACTS INCLUDING FREEPORT - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has confirmed plans to renegotiate all mining contracts including those wi ...
Friday, 23 September 11
ICMA TO BUILD UPGRADE FACILITIES TO ANTICIPATE BAN ON LOW-GRADE COAL EXPORT BY 2014
COALspot.com - January to August of this year, Indonesia’s coal production had already reached 235 million tons. Earlier estimates had targete ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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