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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 30 September 11
INDIAN IRON ORE MARKET GETTING ACTIVE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its strong trend with fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels open US Gulf fixed tick above US$ 27k back to t ...
Friday, 30 September 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT WINS GLOBAL PORT & COAL PORT OF THE YEAR AWARDS
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port, a dynamic new generation world class port located in the East Coast of India has been adjudged the winner in the ...
Thursday, 29 September 11
INDONESIA'S MINERS FACE AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE - RUPERT WALKER
An evolving regulatory framework for the country's minerals industry could threaten its profitability and stifle investment.
The five-year surge ...
Thursday, 29 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS MID-WEEK, FURTHER DROP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ON CHINA HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, as reflected by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreated by 0.36% yesterday reaching 1,920 points, with the Capesize segment suffer ...
Wednesday, 28 September 11
ATLAS RESOURCES TO SELL 25% STAKE IN IPO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, plans to sell 783.33 m ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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