We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
|
|
|
Showing 5046 to 5050 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
|
| |
| |
|
