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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 10 October 11
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TO BE THE NEW PIRACY HOTSPOT FOR THIS YEAR SAYS MARITIME SECURITY EXPERT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Mozambique Channel, as well as the entrance to the Persian Gulf, are expected to become some of the new pirate hotspots for piracy, says Richard ...
Sunday, 09 October 11
FREIGHT MARKET ENDED WITH A POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market ended with a positive note with all the segments up except for handy size. The biggest gainer was Panamax index up by 11 p ...
Saturday, 08 October 11
INDONESIAN MINER PLANS $167M IPO TO FUEL SUMATRA COAL BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe reported that, coal miner Atlas Resources aims to raise as much as Rp 1.5 trillion ($167 million) in an initial public offering to ...
Friday, 07 October 11
MINING REGULATIONS , OBSTACLES AND GROWTH : INDIA VS INDONESIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The Govt of India has passed long pending Mines & Minerals (Regulation and Development) Bill, 2011, which seeks to replace ...
Friday, 07 October 11
$100M FOR EXPANSION INTO KALIMANTAN MINING: AKR
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, AKR Corporindo, a fuel and chemical distributor, has set aside ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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