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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 12 October 11
INDONESIAS COAL RUSH - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Last winter, the Chinese government mobilized thousands of soldiers and reservists of the People’s Liberation Army to the port ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE - A SURPRISE JUMP IN RATES - BRS
There was a surge across all sizes last week, resulting in the BDI gaining 101 points to end the week at 2,000 points (+5.3%). The BCI reached 3,218 ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the se ...
Tuesday, 11 October 11
GLENCORE, SUITOR FOR BUMI PLC? - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the largest commodities trader in the world, Glencore International Plc, is considering an opportunity to acquire a m ...
Tuesday, 11 October 11
RENUKA COALINDO BUYS JAMBI COAL
PT Renuka Coalindo Tbk, formerly PT Allbond Makmur Usaha Tbk plans to acquire PT Jambi Prima Coal holder of mining concession in Pauh, Sa ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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