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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 15 October 11
BUNKER PRICES AND DEMANDS PUSHED FREIGHT RATES UP - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to be firm with all segments moving up with biggest gain in Handy size segment up by 15 pct. The BDI was u ...
Saturday, 15 October 11
BENGAL COAL IMPORT TEST - THE TELEGRAPH
The Telegraph reported that, the power position in Bengal improved today but alarm bells are ringing over imported coal stocks that are running out ...
Friday, 14 October 11
CAPE DERIVATIVES MARKET HAS NOT REFLECTED OWNERS EXPECTATIONS' - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its upward trend, with fresh cargo entering the market. Skaw Passero to US Gulf climbed US$ 1500 from la ...
Friday, 14 October 11
ADARO BUYS SERVO MEDA FOR RP200 BIO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) announced that its subsidiary PT Alam Tri Abadi (ATI), acquired 35% stake in PT Serv ...
Thursday, 13 October 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ANALYSTS WARN IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market continued its push forward yesterday, for yet another session, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edg ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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