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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 19 October 11
ADARO ACQUIRES BUKIT ENIM ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk, via its subsidiary dubbed PT Alam Tri Abadi, today revealed a 46% stake takeover of a ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
INDONESIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS JERO WACIK AS NEW MINISTER OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Jero Wacik has been appointed as minister of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia replacing Darwin Saleh and Prof. Widjajono Par ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS PRODUCED 3.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur, wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), Delta Dunia Makmur has removed 1.4 million bcm ...
Monday, 17 October 11
KOWEPO TO BUY 260,000 MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - KOWEPO has issued a spot tender for 260,000MT of minimum 5,600kcal/kg NAR Bituminous Coal.
The tender document also mentioned tha ...
Monday, 17 October 11
CAPESIZE SHIPPING COSTS CLIMB TO 10-MONTH HIGH ON ORE IMPORTS
The cost to hire capesize vessels climbed to a 10-month high as rising imports of iron ore to China boosted demand for the ships.Monthly iron-ore sh ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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