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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzi ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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