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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 24 October 11
CAPESIZE RENTAL RATES RISE FOR THIRD DAY AS MORE SHIPS HIRED - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Rates to hire capesize vessels advanced for a third day on signs of increased demand to transport iron ore, used to make steel.Daily rates for the s ...
Sunday, 23 October 11
CHINA LOOKING TO RESELL INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES - BARCLAYS
Commodity Online reported that, Anecdotal evidence has suggested that China is even looking to resell Indonesian cargoes back into the seaborne coal ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
THE SHORT-PERIOD RATES FOR PANAMAX REMAINED FIRM - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - "The market seemed to slow down a bit this week, and all sectors were down by about One to five percent", said Capt. Reddy, ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
WILL THE PROPOSED 26 PERCENT PROFIT SHARING CLAUSE IN THE MINING BILL SPEED UP THE PRODUCTION OR SCARE AWAY INVESTORS? - DIPESH DIPU
A draft law has been approved by a ministerial panel headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee of India which, if passed by the Cabinet, will make ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
INDONESIA'S GOLDEN ENERGY SLASHES ITS IPO PRICE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Golden Energy Mines, a coal mining company affiliated with Sinar Mas Group, lowered its target in an initial public ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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