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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 26 October 11
PWCS GLOBAL SHIPPING BENCHMARKING ANALYSIS: RECOVERY IN 2010 BUT GREAT UNCERTAINLY FOR 2011
The recovery of global trade in 2010 to the same levels as 2008 led to an improvement in the overall performance of shipping companies in 2010 compa ...
Wednesday, 26 October 11
INDIAN MARKET WAS REMAINED TIGHT THE WHOLE LAST WEEK - BRS
The market once more seems to be at a crossroads. The indices last week remained fairly stable (except for the Panamax sector), ending the week as f ...
Tuesday, 25 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, ANALYSTS LOOKING FOR ADDED PRESSURE ON THE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was unchanged on Monday, with the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ending the session at 2,153 points, exa ...
Monday, 24 October 11
NEW HEAD OF INDONESIA'S MINING MINISTRY GETS RAKED OVER THE COALS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Following Indonesia’s presidential cabinet shakeup last week, many are questioning the qualifications of Energy and Mineral Res ...
Monday, 24 October 11
CHINA QINHUANGDAO COAL PRICE RISES TO HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS - BUSINESSWEEK
Business week reported that, China’s power-station coal price rose to the highest level in three years as power stations and central heating p ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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