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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 28 October 11
RISING COAL PRICES TO WORSEN CHINA'S WINTER POWER CRUNCH - CRI ENGLISH
CRI English reported that, the rising price of coal is fueling concerns about a power crunch set to plague China this winter, analysts said.
The ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
CAPESIZE REACHING NEW HIGHS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Pacific market has mixed sentiments with tonnages fixed at firm levels and some tonnages in feast failing on subs.For indo-india, large eco ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES DOWN AS CHINAS IRON ORE DEMAND LOSES GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A plunge in Chinese iron ore demand, as a result of high steel inventories and a bleak outlook regarding steel prices, has prompted the dry bulk mar ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
BUKIT ASAM 3Q PROFIT SURGES 66.91%
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) experienced a 66.91% increase in its net profit during a per ...
Wednesday, 26 October 11
MOODYS SEES MORE GROWTH FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s coal mining industry looks set to grow despite an uncertain global economic outlook, according to ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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